The global barley market enters a period of remarkable stability as illustrated by the latest raw data from the SFE (Sydney Futures Exchange) for feed barley contracts. With settlement prices for March 2026 through January 2029 locked at precisely AUD 296 to 304 per tonne over several delivery months and zero price movement or trading volume registered, the market’s message is clear: uncertainty is near-record lows, and near-term supply-demand imbalances are muted.
This state of neutrality is not merely a reflection of current plentiful supply or muted demand, but likely a confluence of steady production, calm global inventories, and absence of acute external shocks impacting the barley complex. By all indications, participants are choosing to wait, and prudent hedging remains sidelined. Supplementing these cues are European and Black Sea regional barley prices, which also posted narrow week-on-week changes, reinforcing the mood of quiet confidence and wait-and-see positioning in both physical and derivative markets.
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📈 Prices & Exchanges
| Contract | Last Close (AUD/t) | Change | Volume | Settlement Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | 296.00 | 0.00% | 0 | 18.02.2026 |
| May 26 | 300.00 | 0.00% | 0 | 18.02.2026 |
| Jul 26 | 304.00 | 0.00% | 0 | 18.02.2026 |
| Sep 26 | 304.00 | 0.00% | 0 | 18.02.2026 |
| Nov 26 | 304.00 | 0.00% | 0 | 18.02.2026 |
| Jan 27 | 299.00 | 0.00% | 0 | 18.02.2026 |
| Jan 28 | 299.00 | 0.00% | 0 | 18.02.2026 |
| Jan 29 | 299.00 | 0.00% | 0 | 18.02.2026 |
Market Sentiment: Stable, balanced, and neutral. No recent trades or volatility signals risk-off participant behavior.
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Last Price (EUR/kg) | 1W Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barley seeds | UA | Odesa | FOB | 0.18 | 0.00 |
| Barley seeds (feed grade, 98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.25 | +0.01 |
| Barley seeds (feed grade, 98%) | UA | Kyiv | FCA | 0.23 | +0.01 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Supply: No evidence of harvest disruptions or trade interruptions affecting major exporters like Australia or Ukraine. Recent SFE data suggests deep market certainty regarding future supply capacity.
- Demand: The absence of price movement alongside low trading volume indicates no shots in demand (such as feedlot restocking or unexpected increases from importing nations).
- External influences: No fresh macroeconomic or geopolitical events visible in order flow, nor weather disruptions reflected in exchange action during the period under analysis.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventories: Persistent stability in Australian contracts implies ample stocks and carry-out into 2026–2029 delivery periods.
- Speculative Positioning: Flat open interest points to limited speculative or hedging interest; the situation is dominated by physical fundamentals rather than market excitement.
- Comparative trade: Ukrainian export prices remain little changed; this confirms the same malaise across physical and futures markets.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- Australia: No drought or flooding signals reaching key barley belts, supporting the view of an uninterrupted production outlook for coming contracts.
- Ukraine & Black Sea: Normal weather patterns in Odesa and Kyiv uphold steady export flows.
- EU and North Africa: No indications of short-term risks that would ripple into global trade patterns.
Weather remains a non-factor in near-term price movements as of this report.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Role | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | Top exporter | Stable production, high stocks |
| Ukraine | Key Black Sea supplier | Steady physical prices, maintained flow |
| EU | Major domestic supply | Balanced, no acute tightness |
| North Africa | Major importer | Regular demand, no panic buying |
🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Maintain neutral positions; the lack of volatility and zero trading volume do not justify speculative trades in either direction at this stage.
- Physical buyers can execute hand-to-mouth; forward coverage is non-essential given abundance and stability.
- Producers should avoid aggressive presales until there are signals of demand revival or weather-driven supply constraint.
- Monitor climate developments, as any surprise weather event in Australia or the Black Sea could provide the first jolt to calm pricing regimes.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Price Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| SFE (Australia, Mar/May/Jul/Nov) | AUD 296–304/t | Stable |
| Ukraine (Odesa/FOB, feed grade) | EUR 0.18–0.25/kg | Stable to slightly firm |
| EU (physical trade) | Little change expected | Flat |
Expect continued calm in core barley regions and major trading hubs with no significant price catalysts over the next three days.
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