US Corn Market Braces for Acreage Shift Amid Competitive South American Exports

The global corn market is at a critical juncture as attention pivots towards the upcoming US acreage estimates—their outcome could sharply reshape supply expectations and pricing dynamics for the year ahead. The first USDA projections for 2026 US corn acreage, due Thursday, hold major importance. Consensus sees around 94.9 million acres, well below 2025’s figure of 98.8 million, implying a much tighter US supply scenario if average yields materialize. Historically, acreage cuts of this scale have acted as stabilizing or bullish influences on global markets, especially in the face of robust international demand.

Yet, the bullish undertones from potential US supply constraints are being checked by strong export flows from South America. The Brazilian export association ANEC projects February corn exports at 1.12 million tonnes, slightly higher than earlier estimates—an early season reminder of Brazil’s growing influence and its strategic pricing power in competitive overseas markets. Favorable weather in Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay further supports swift harvests and sustained availability of South American corn, putting a ceiling on near-term price gains for US-origin grain. In sum, a classic tug-of-war is playing out: on one hand, shrinking US plantings point to future tightness; on the other, South American supplies limit how high prices can go in the present.

📈 Corn Prices Overview

CBOT Corn Futures (as of 19 Feb 2026, US-Cent/bu)

Contract	Last	Change	% Change	Open Interest
Mar 26	427.50	+0.50	+0.12%	323,474
May 26	437.50	+0.75	+0.17%	600,916
Jul 26	445.00	+0.25	+0.06%	326,511
Sep 26	446.00	+0.25	+0.06%	205,432
Dec 26	461.25	+0.25	+0.05%	268,149

DCE Corn Futures (CYN/t, as of 13 Feb 2026)

Contract	Close	Change	% Change
Mar 26	2,306	+3	+0.13%
May 26	2,322	+3	+0.13%
Jul 26	2,326	+5	+0.21%

Spot Physical Prices (EUR/tonne)

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR)	Prev (EUR)
India (IN)	Organic starch	New Delhi	FOB	1.40	1.40
France (FR)	Yellow corn	Paris	FOB	0.18	0.18
Ukraine (UA)	Feed, 98% purity	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.24

Market sentiment: Cautious, with limited price appreciation but support from US acreage concerns.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Acreage Forecasts (2026): Market expects US corn area at 94.9 million acres (range: 94.0–96.8), far below 2025’s 98.8 million acres and last year’s 94.0 million. Tackling such reduced acreage would equate to tighter supply unless yields exceed projections.
• South American Exports: Brazil’s ANEC sees Feb exports at 1.12 Mt. Though the figures are still seasonally moderate, they reinforce Brazil’s increasing capacity to compete for global demand, often at the expense of US market share.
• Weather/Harvest Progress: Favorable conditions in Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay leading to quick harvests, ensuring ongoing good availability of South American corn and curbing US export leverage.

📊 Fundamentals & Inventory

• US corn planted area (2026) set for a sharp reduction, influenced by market profits, input cost outlooks, and crop rotations.
• Inventories in the US could trend lower if yields are standard; global balance sheets, meanwhile, remain buffered by South American output.
• Speculative traders remain attentive to the US acreage figure—any figure even modestly above/below expectations could trigger swift price adjustment.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Yield Outlook

• Argentina/Southern Brazil/Paraguay: Dry, harvest-friendly weather forecast for March supports brisk corn/soybean harvesting.
• Central Brazil: Minor risks of rain could delay transition from first corn crop to second ‘safrinha’ sowing, but currently not a major threat.
• Overall: Weather poses minimal risks; harvest progress expected to be rapid, keeping regional supply robust and tempering price upside.

🏭 Global Production/Stock Snapshot

Country/Region	Key Trend
USA	Major planted area drop in 2026, likely lower stocks if average yields
Brazil	Sustained, competitive exports; ample near-term availability
Argentina	Accelerated harvest progress, adding to global supply
Ukraine/Europe	Physical prices (EUR/tonne) remain stable; Odesa corn at 0.25, Paris at 0.18

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Thursday’s USDA acreage estimates: a figure below 94.9 million may ignite a price rally; above 96 million could trigger a dip.
• Near-term, South American export flow and favorable weather limit market upside—expect rangebound trading through late February.
• End-users should consider gradual coverage for Q2/Q3 while values remain historically low.
• Speculators: Watch for volatility spikes around USDA report; exploit short-term moves in either direction.
• Exporters: Leverage South American supplier advantage in key Asian/African markets before US crop prospects return to focus in Q2.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Current	3-Day Forecast
CBOT (Mar 26)	427.50 US-Cent/bu	424–430 US-Cent/bu
DCE (Mar 26)	2,306 CNY/t	2,295–2,315 CNY/t
FOB France (Yellow Corn)	0.18 EUR/kg	0.18–0.19 EUR/kg
FOB Ukraine (Feed Corn)	0.25 EUR/kg	0.24–0.27 EUR/kg

Risk of major price moves will increase if new data flow from the USDA or unexpected weather shifts hit the market.