Barley Market: Stable Prices, Weather Uncertainty, and Persistent Demand Define Early 2026

The global barley market stands at a critical juncture in early 2026, shaped by both regional weather risks and robust international trade. Current market dynamics reflect a blend of steady prices, resilient demand, and heightened attention to weather events especially in Eastern Europe. In Ukraine, a recent cold spell following thaw conditions has revived concerns about overwintering cereals, potentially threatening barley and other grain crops should adverse weather persist into the spring. While the exact extent of crop damage remains uncertain, the size of the affected area and the possibility of asphyxiation due to ice-crusting put a spotlight on the next few weeks as a pivotal period for future exports from this major Black Sea producer. Conversely, Russia offers a more optimistic outlook, with upgraded harvest predictions attributed to favorable soil moisture and protective snow cover. Yet, the months ahead are notorious for weather-related yield variability, which means volatility is likely to remain pronounced.

On the demand side, the Middle East continues its strong buying activity, as highlighted by Jordan’s recent tenders. This is indicative not only of the region’s need for feed grains but also signals a potential floor for prices driven by import sensitivity. Meanwhile, Australian barley exports are flowing at high volumes into Asia and the Middle East, meeting this resilient global demand and offsetting some risks stemming from Eastern Europe. While upward pressure on pricing thus far has been modest, continued tenders and robust trade flows demonstrate that buyers remain engaged, keeping sentiment constructive for now. Short-term stability is mirrored in both domestic and port prices in Ukraine, supported further by healthy export activity from alternative origins. Ultimately, fundamentals suggest a barley market where price levels are likely to be rangebound, but weather volatility and shifting acreage remain key risks on the horizon.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Location	Contract	Closing Price	Prev. Day	Change	Currency	Update	Sentiment
SFE	Mar 26	296.00	296.00	0.00	AUD/t	19.02.2026	Stable
SFE	May 26	300.00	300.00	0.00	AUD/t	19.02.2026	Stable
SFE	Jul 26 – Nov 26	304.00	304.00	0.00	AUD/t	19.02.2026	Stable
SFE	Jan 27-29	299.00	299.00	0.00	AUD/t	19.02.2026	Stable

 

Origin	Location	Delivery	Price	Prev. Price	Update	Type	Offer
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	€0.25/kg	€0.25/kg	2026-02-20	Feed grade	Link
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	€0.23/kg	€0.23/kg	2026-02-20	Feed grade	Link
Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	€0.18/kg	€0.18/kg	2026-02-13	Cattle feed	Link

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: Domestic feed barley prices remain steady; port prices are slightly firmer—reflecting ongoing demand and risk premiums due to weather.
• Russia: Harvest forecast revised up to 85.9 Mt for 2026/27, with good moisture and snow coverage supporting crop potential—yet risks persist if spring weather deteriorates.
• Australia: Strong export flows, predominantly to China and the Middle East, are keeping international supply ample.
• Demand Hotspots: Recent large tenders in the Middle East (e.g., Jordan)—robust demand persists despite marginal price increases.
• US Outlook: Wheat acreage slightly down, which could indirectly support barley and feed grain values in global markets.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Weather Uncertainty: Ice crusting across Ukrainian fields introduces significant crop risk, with the extent of potential loss still unknown. If prolonged, export supply could be impaired.
• Robust Demand: Active buying, especially in the Middle East, underpins price stability on international and port levels.
• Australian Exports: High outbound flows into key Asian and Middle Eastern destinations, stabilizing global barley availability.
• Acreage Forecasts: More conservative US wheat plantings lend longer-term support to world feed grain prices, including barley.
• Speculation & Sentiment: The overall market appears balanced—nervousness will increase if adverse weather events are confirmed in the next reporting periods.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent frost after thaw risks crop asphyxiation; attention is on upcoming weeks for signs of crop death or recovery. Exporters should monitor for updated damage assessments.
• Russia: Current snow/bodenmoisture positive; spring volatility (March-May) could still alter prospects.
• Australia: Export logistics and conditions remain favorable, with no immediate weather threats reported.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

• Russia: 2026/27 production raised to 85.9 Mt—positive for total Black Sea grain exports if weather holds.
• Ukraine: Area sown to winter wheat for 2026 is steady (~4.5 million ha), but risk of winterkill could impact overall grain export volumes.
• Australia: Continues to play a balancing role in the global supply chain.
• Importers: Middle East and Asia continue to drive barley trade; recent Jordanian tenders exemplary.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider maintaining sales hedges—price risk is balanced but could shift quickly on weather news.
• Exporters: Monitor quality and logistics; continue to follow Black Sea developments closely. Australian sellers remain competitive.
• Importers: Take advantage of current stability, but lock in coverage for the next few months; tender results show resilience, but upside risk remains if Ukrainian/Russian output falters.
• Speculators: Watch for volatility—especially from Ukraine in the coming weeks.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Ukraine (Domestic & FOB): Prices expected to remain stable with a slight upward bias should weather risks materialize (€0.23–0.25/kg FCA, €0.18/kg FOB).
• Australia (SFE): Rangebound between AUD 296–304/t; stability likely to persist barring surprise weather or demand developments.
• Black Sea Ports: Short-term marginal strength possible—monitor the frost risk news flow from Ukraine.