China Millet Market Faces Tight Supply and Cautious Demand as New Year Exports Slow

The Chinese millet market is entering a period of distinct tension as supply dries up and demand grows cautious. With the Lunar New Year approaching, most farmers have little intention of selling their remaining stocks, and the majority of grain traders have paused their collection and shipping activities. This has significantly disrupted the flow of millet at the grassroots level, restricting available cargo and tightening spot supply.

On the demand side, most milling enterprises in production regions have completed their orders and entered a seasonal shutdown phase—typical for this time of year. However, a handful of speculators are still acquiring stocks, betting that grain available for circulation before the Lantern Festival (Fifteenth of the First Lunar Month) will be scarce and possibly command a premium. The export market is currently focused on Southeast Asia, as demand from South Korea, the United States, and Europe has decreased. The domestic market now clearly dominates consumption dynamics.

After the holiday, market direction will depend heavily on a potential recovery in demand. Both market participants and analysts are closely watching for post-holiday price movements to determine next steps. The current status underscores the unique seasonality and strategic stocking behaviors that characterize the Chinese millet market and shape global export flows during festival periods.

📈 Market Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Organic	Delivery	Latest Price (€/kg)	Prev. Price	Date	Sentiment
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.90%	Yes	FOB	0.87	0.87	2026-02-21	Stable
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	FOB	0.78	0.78	2026-02-21	Stable
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow	–	No	FOB	0.22	0.22	2026-02-20	Stable

Note: No recent price changes reported, reflecting subdued trade activity during the holiday.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Supply: Farmers holding stocks until after New Year; grain traders largely halted, leading to limited grassroots cargo flow.
• Demand: Most processors have ended orders and closed plants for the holiday. Some speculative stocking continues in expectation of post-holiday tightness.
• Exports: Southeast Asia remains the dominant export destination; shares to South Korea, US, and Europe have decreased.
• Domestic Market: Now the main focus as export shares decline.

📊 Fundamentals & Exogenous Factors

• Seasonality is central: pre-holiday demand winds down while supply is tightly held back.
• Trade activity expected to resume only after the festival period.
• Current stability in prices hints at a well-balanced market, but post-holiday recovery in demand may trigger price changes.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Yield Implications

• Key Chinese Regions: No immediate weather concerns reported. Market is focused on logistics and seasonal patterns, not weather-induced supply shocks.
• Ukraine/Other Exporters: No data suggesting adverse weather impact on seed quality or supply.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparisons

• China: Maintains strong production and stocks, holds decisive control over exportable supply.
• Ukraine: Supply remains steady; prices remain low, but export demand subdued.
• Other importers (Southeast Asia, South Korea, US, Europe): Lower import volumes, with Southeast Asia as the key destination currently.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect low liquidity until after Lunar New Year observances conclude.
• Monitor for a demand rebound; if strong, prices may firm as stocks loosen only gradually.
• Short-term: Stable prices expected. Medium-term: Potential for tightening and higher prices post-holiday if demand recovers quickly.
• Exporters: Focus on Southeast Asia; keep monitoring EU/US market signals for shifts in demand post-holiday.
• Importers: Consider strategic buying as spot availability may be constrained until late Q1.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Chinese Export Markets)

Location	Product	Current Price (€/kg)	Forecast Range (€/kg)	Trend
Beijing (CN)	Millet kernels (organic)	0.87	0.86 – 0.88	Stable
Beijing (CN)	Millet kernels (conventional)	0.78	0.77 – 0.79	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds (hulled, yellow)	0.22	0.22 – 0.23	Stable

Barring a sharp post-holiday demand rebound, prices are expected to remain stable in the immediate near term.