Corn Market Stays Steady: USDA Acreage, Argentine Weather & Global Demand Drive Prices

The global corn market is currently navigating a phase of cautious stability. Futures prices across major exchanges such as Euronext, CBOT, and Dalian Commodity Exchange have shown minor day-to-day changes, with little outright volatility. While the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently reduced its corn acreage estimate—projecting 94 million acres for 2026 versus analysts’ expectations of 94.9 million—the outlook for total harvest remains robust, with both corn and soybean crops set to be the second largest on record. This comfortable supply situation, however, is counterbalanced by fierce weather-related stress in Argentina, where the ongoing drought is impacting key growing regions and the majority of the late-planted corn is enduring its most sensitive development stage under substantial moisture deficit.

Export demand, meanwhile, continues at a steady if unspectacular pace. Latest USDA export data for the 2025/26 marketing year matched market expectations, but reflected a week-on-week decline; nevertheless, it remains incrementally stronger than a year ago. Recent CFTC data reveals that speculative long positions in CBOT corn have been significantly reduced, indicating a shift toward more bearish or risk-averse market sentiment. Against this background, the global corn trade is watching closely for signs of production risk escalation in South America, while also analyzing any changes in U.S. planting progress and demand signals from major importers like Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan. Pricing in Europe and the U.S. remains rangebound, with some upward support from wheat but held in check by weakness in soybeans and comfortable global inventories.

📈 Prices: Key Exchange Overview

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Change	Sentiment
Euronext (Paris)	Aug 26	195.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral
CBOT	Jul 26	447.00 US-Cent/bu	-0.28%	Slight Bearish
DCE (Dalian)	Jul 26	2,326 CNY/t	+0.21%	Neutral/Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Acreage Forecasts: U.S. corn planting is projected at 94 million acres for 2026, below analyst expectations. Despite smaller acreage, the crop is anticipated to be historically large—second only to record highs.
• South American Production Risks: Persistent drought in Argentina severely affects late-planted corn, with over half of these fields currently suffering from dryness—twice the extent seen last year. Early yields in northern Argentina average 7 t/ha but fall to around 6.4 t/ha in Entre Ríos.
• Global Export Demand: USDA data for the week to 12 February shows U.S. corn exports at 1.47 million tonnes—within expectations but down week-on-week. Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan remain key buyers.
• Speculative Positioning: CFTC data shows non-commercial traders reduced net-long positions by 20,795 contracts to a net-long of 27,415, signaling reduced bullish interest.

📊 Fundamentals & Regional Production

• U.S.: Planted area down year-on-year, but absolute volume still near record. Expectations for high ending stocks barring major weather disruptions.
• Argentina: Dryness threatens late crop; 68.5% of late-sown fields in sensitive phase, with 52% under pronounced drought stress.
• Europe: Stable Prices. Euronext contracts are flat, implying equilibrated supply-demand and absent short-term weather threats.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Argentina: Recent rains uneven; southern Santa Fe and central-eastern Entre Ríos in urgent need of precipitation. Critical period for late corn persists; further dryness could prompt output revisions downward.
• U.S. Corn Belt: Near-term weather is seasonably favorable for planting preparations, with no acute threats reported.
• EU: No significant extremes anticipated; stable conditions support steady market.

🌐 Global Stocks & Importer/Exporter Balance

• U.S.: Largest exporter with solid buffer stocks projected.
• Argentina/Brazil: Drought could crimp Argentine export availability, but Brazil’s record harvest offers partial offset.
• Europe/Black Sea: EU production steady; Ukraine supplies remain competitive but growth limited by logistical and political strains.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Downside price risk remains due to strong global supply; watch for South American weather-driven surprises.
• Bullish short-term impulses possible if Argentine crop losses escalate or adverse weather emerges in the U.S. post-planting.
• Monitor USDA’s planting progress and spring weather closely for potential trend disruption.
• For exporters: Maintain flexible risk hedges, particularly with late Argentine harvest vulnerability.
• For importers: No urgent coverage needs; gradual accumulation on price dips remains prudent given current balance.
• Speculation: Neutral-to-bearish trend unless adverse weather catalyzes fund re-engagement.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	3-Day Outlook
Euronext	Aug 26	194.0–196.0 EUR/t | Flat-to-slightly softer, barring sudden Argentine news
CBOT	Jul 26	445–448 US-Cent/bu | Sideways, risk skew to downside absent new supply threat
DCE	Jul 26	2,325–2,335 CNY/t | Rangebound, stable domestic demand