Barley Market Analysis: Stable Futures, Cautious Optimism & Ample Supply

The barley market currently stands at a pivotal juncture: exchange prices remain stable, reflecting a market that is well-supplied, but cautious optimism is evident among traders. Recent futures data from SFE Futtergerste (Feed Barley) illustrate a series of contracts with closing prices remaining unchanged, regardless of term, and little to no trading volume. While external commodity markets—most notably wheat—have experienced some volatility and optimism amid tightening balances, barley’s fundamentals continue to be shaped by large inventories and restrained demand.

Farmers still holding onto substantial stocks are advised to accelerate marketing efforts, as future price gains are expected to be muted by the prevailing abundance within the EU and rising carry-out stocks. Nonetheless, should weather-related surprises arise and interrupt the supply chain ahead of the next harvest, price upticks are possible, though likely short-lived given the global context. In addition, trade policy uncertainties and currency fluctuations, as experienced recently on the Euronext, serve as underlying moderating influences. Moving forward, ongoing weather improvements in key regions—especially France—are reducing production risks, but the market eyes new export opportunities and potential logistical shifts with a cautious mindset.

📈 Barley Prices & Sentiment

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SFE Futtergerste	Mar 26	296.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE Futtergerste	May 26	300.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE Futtergerste	Jul 26	304.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE Futtergerste	Sep 26	304.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
SFE Futtergerste	Nov 26	304.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Stable
Physical Market (UA)	Feed, Odesa (FOB)	0.18 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
	Feed, Odesa (FCA)	0.25 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
	Feed, Kyiv (FCA)	0.23 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Large barley inventories within the EU continue to pressure the market, limiting upward price movements despite occasional short-term rallies due to weather fears.
• Farmers have been advised to market up to 70% of their old crop stocks, underscoring expectations that supply will continue to outpace demand in the near term.
• Export demand is moderate; recent tender activities for wheat (a feed barley competitor) in Algeria underline a preference for Black Sea origins, which is also impacting the broader grains complex, including barley markets.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Exchange activity for barley is virtually non-existent, with zero trading volumes observed across all listed contracts up to January 2029 on SFE Futtergerste.
• Barley prices remain flat week-on-week, suggesting market participants see little cause for price action in absence of new supply-demand shocks.
• Sentiment in related grain markets is more optimistic, with wheat trading near recent highs—although this support is not yet translating into significant barley movement due to the crop’s ample supply situation.
• The strengthening Euro and ongoing trade policy debates on Euronext continue to influence cross-commodity sentiment but have impaired neither barley’s stability nor prospects at this stage.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Weather issues previously weighing on French cereals have eased, thanks to normalization after heavy rainfall. Conditions now favor stable to possibly improved yields for barley in the medium term.
• Recent better water availability should enhance overall barley crop potential, with no acute weather risks identified in major producing regions as of now.

📈 Production & Global Stocks Comparison

• The EU’s large barley ending stocks underpin current market stability. Increased end-of-season inventories are likely to cap prices in both futures and physical cash markets.
• Major exporting countries (EU, Black Sea region, Australia) continue to ship steadily, facing little upward price momentum due to abundant supplies and only moderate demand from importers.
• Importing countries’ interest is steady but not aggressive, with demand not strong enough to absorb supply gluts.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers should take advantage of current prices to market old crop inventories—targeting sales of at least 70% before the new harvest begins.
• Upside potential remains limited due to robust supply and high EU carryout stocks unless new weather-driven disruptions arise.
• Monitor FX developments and policy signals on Euronext for cross-commodity impacts, especially if wheat prices firm further.
• End-users can expect stable to slightly softer prices barring any major production setbacks or abrupt demand spikes.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Location	Product	Current Price	Forecast (3 days)	Sentiment
SFE Futtergerste (AUD)	Feed Barley	296–304 AUD/t	Unchanged	Sideways
Odesa (EUR)	Feed Barley (FOB/FCA)	0.18–0.25 EUR/kg	Unchanged	Stable
Kyiv (EUR)	Feed Barley (FCA)	0.23 EUR/kg	Unchanged	Stable