Corn Market: Strong USDA Exports Meet Delays in Brazil, Prices Hold Firm

The global corn market finds itself at a crossroads, balancing robust export momentum from the US, weather-induced setbacks in South America, and shifting trade and policy winds. Last week saw US corn futures resist broader agricultural market softness, buoyed by promising export numbers from the USDA and mounting concerns over Brazil’s sluggish harvest pace.

However, looming trade policy uncertainty—precipitated by recent US Supreme Court rulings and threats of retaliatory foreign tariffs—casts a shadow over potential price gains, as market participants weigh possible disruptions to export flows. Meanwhile, recent data reveals US corn shipments running well ahead of last year, highlighting strong demand from Asia and Latin America, while Brazil’s progress in both harvesting and sowing lags typical seasonal averages. Buyers and sellers must remain alert, as the interplay of policy headlines, South American growing conditions, and global demand surges continues to shape the corn price landscape.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Change	Sentiment
Euronext (EUR/t)	Mar 26	191.00 €	0.00%	Neutral/Firm
	Jun 26	192.50 €	0.00%	Neutral/Firm
CBOT (US-Cent/bu)	Mar 26	427.75 ¢	+0.06%	Slightly Positive
	May 26	440.25 ¢	0.00%	Neutral
DCE (CNY/t)	Mar 26	2,306 ¥	+0.13%	Stable

Market sentiment on major exchanges remained steady to firm, with CBOT corn bucking weakness seen in wheat and soybeans, thanks to export optimism and weather concerns in South America.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Export Momentum: The USDA’s export inspections showed 2.05 million tonnes shipped in a single recent week—the second-largest total of the crop year, 33% above the prior week and 72% higher than a year ago. Cumulative US corn exports since September are up 46% year-on-year, with Japan, Mexico, and South Korea as lead buyers.
• Brazilian Harvest & Planting Delays: Only 28% of the first corn crop in Brazil has been harvested (vs. 37% avg.), and planting for the second crop is just 50% complete (vs. 64% avg.), reflecting negative weather influences.
• US Policy Uncertainty: Unpredictability around US tariff policy, following a Supreme Court decision and threats of 15% import tariffs from Donald Trump, clouds the export outlook and raises the specter of retaliatory actions from key trading partners.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• USDA Private Sales: 125,000 tonnes of US corn privately sold to Colombia adds momentum to export pace.
• Inventories: Robust US export shipments are drawing down domestic stocks, but overall global inventories remain adequate, putting an upper cap on price rallies barring a new weather or policy shock.
• Speculative Positioning: Uncertainty around tariffs may promote caution among funds and commercial hedgers.

⛅ Weather & Regional Production Outlook

• Brazil: Prolonged rainy periods slow both harvest and new plantings, increasing risk of yield losses if delays persist.
• US: No immediate adverse weather reported; planting intentions and weather in March/April will be crucial for new crop trajectory.
• Europe (France): No major disruptions reported, but market is watchful for spring and early summer precipitation patterns.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Overview

Country	2025/26 Production (Est.)	Change vs LY	Stocks (Est.)
USA	~390 Mt	+4%	Increasing, but depleting due to exports
Brazil	~124 Mt	-2%	Possibly declining if harvest delays persist
China	~285 Mt	Stable	Stable
EU	~60 Mt	+1%	Stable

(Source: industry estimates; for illustrative purposes — confirm with latest WASDE report for official figures.)

💡 Trading Outlook: Key Insights & Recommendations

• Export demand for US corn is robust and likely to remain strong in the near term, especially if Brazilian delays persist.
• Risk remains elevated around US trade policy—monitor tariff headlines vigilantly.
• Short-term support for corn prices is expected; sharp rallies may be limited by global stocks and policy risks.
• Weather monitoring in Brazil and the US is critical—any further setbacks or US planting delays could quickly support prices.
• European market remains steady; importers/consumers should consider coverage before spring volatility.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Price Range (Est.)	Bias
Euronext	Mar 26	189–193 €/t	Slightly Firm
CBOT	Mar 26	426–431 ¢/bu	Stable/Firm
DCE	Mar 26	2,300–2,315 ¥/t	Steady

Traders: monitor US trade policy closely and watch South American weather conditions for near-term strategic positioning in corn futures and physical procurement.

Physical FOB corn offer snapshot (supplementary):

• FR (Paris, FOB): 0.18 €/kg
• UA (Odesa, FOB): 0.17 €/kg
• UA feed grade, FCA Odesa: 0.25 €/kg