Barley Market Holds Steady: SFE Futures Flat Amid Global Supply Stability

The barley market currently exhibits remarkable price stability, as reflected in the SFE Futtergerste (feed barley) futures contracts from March 2026 through January 2029. All contracts closed unchanged, with no traded volume, indicating a pause in market activity and high market confidence in current valuations. This stability suggests limited speculative engagement and possibly balanced supply-demand conditions. Market participants are watching global supply developments and European feed demand trends, but recent data show no disruptions or sharp movements. Ukrainian barley offers on the export market provide additional perspective: prices remain stable, supported by both FOB and FCA terms, and reflect regional liquidity and an absence of short-term supply-side shocks. Looking ahead, any weather developments, changes in global feed grain demand, or policy adjustments in key producing/exporting countries could break this equilibrium. For now, the barley market remains grounded in consistent fundamentals, with little impetus for rapid price movement.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

Exchange	Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SFE (Australia)	Mar 2026	296.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
SFE (Australia)	May 2026	300.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
SFE (Australia)	Jul-Sep-Nov 2026	304.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
SFE (Australia)	Jan 2027-29	299.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral

Origin	Product	Term	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Update
Ukraine (Odesa)	Barley seeds	FOB	0.18 EUR/kg	0.18 EUR/kg	2026-02-20
Ukraine (Odesa)	Feed grade (moisture: 14% max, 98% purity)	FCA	0.25 EUR/kg	0.25 EUR/kg	2026-02-20
Ukraine (Kyiv)	Feed grade (moisture: 14% max, 98% purity)	FCA	0.23 EUR/kg	0.23 EUR/kg	2026-02-20

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• SFE contracts flat for all maturities: Indicates equilibrium with no immediate market-moving news or speculative activity.
• Stable Ukrainian export offers: Supports the global sense of ample supply and steady off-take. No rapid price movement in Black Sea region.
• European feed grain demand: Remains within seasonal expectations; no significant changes in livestock numbers or feed compounding.
• Global stocks: No recent signals of outsized drawdowns or major production shortfalls among top producers.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Insights

• Basis contracts (AUD/t) unchanged with zero trading volume: Market indecision or confidence in current price level.
• Majority of offers remain for future delivery periods (2026-2029), showing expectations for longer-term market stability.
• No clear signals of speculative buildup or institutional repositioning detected in the current data set.
• Black Sea barley remains competitively priced but unchanged, underpinning external market conditions.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Prospects

• Australia: Recent data point to normal rainfall in key east coast barley regions. No reports of crop stress, supporting stability in SFE contracts.
• Ukraine: Transitioning toward spring; favorable pre-planting conditions boost planting optimism, reflected in steady export offers.
• Europe: Mild winter weather and good soil moisture in the EU suggest a typical start for 2026/27 barley, underpinning stable production forecasts.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Overview

Country	Est. 2025/26 Production	Stock Status
Australia	11.5 Mt	Adequate
Ukraine	6.9 Mt	Stable
EU	52.2 Mt	Comfortable
Russia	19.6 Mt	High
China (importer)	NA	Large inventory, active import program

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚖️ Hold/Monitor: With flat futures, no volumes, and stable physical offers, maintain current positions. Watch for weather or policy-driven moves.
• 🔍 Monitor Black Sea exports: Any disruption or price movement could flow through to global valuations.
• 🌾 Buyers: Secure physical barley as needed; forward coverage can be delayed until fresh supply/demand signals emerge.
• 📅 Sellers: Hold off on aggressive forward selling unless local production risks increase.

📉 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Product	3-Day Trend	Forecasted Range
SFE (Australia)	Feed Barley Mar 2026	Sideways	295 – 297 AUD/t
Ukraine	Barley seeds (FOB, Odesa)	Flat	0.18 EUR/kg
Ukraine	Barley seeds (FCA, Kyiv)	Flat	0.23 EUR/kg