Corn Market Holds Gains Amid Seasonal Demand and Weather Risks

The global corn market currently reflects a complex interplay of firm seasonal demand, stable to slightly rising exchange prices, and a growing sense of watchfulness regarding supply risks from key exporters. After hitting a six-week high on the CBOT, the market has stabilized, with little fresh news but ongoing analysis of potential factors shaping future price action. Demand for US corn remains robust as Brazil shifts its export focus toward soybeans, though the upcoming months will see competition as Brazil’s corn export pace is forecast to slow only modestly from last year.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s recent tariff ruling in the US has yet to demonstrate significant impacts, though traders are alert to any potential effects on American export competitiveness. In Ukraine, severe winter conditions have frozen soils up to a meter deep, potentially delaying spring sowings and highlighting a supply-side vulnerability with unclear downstream implications for European and global balances. The latest traded prices at Euronext, CBOT, and DCE exchanges show a stable to slightly bullish tone, with most active contracts either marking small daily gains or holding steady.

This equilibrium leaves the market finely balanced: traders monitor how supply-side uncertainties in Ukraine and steady US demand interact with global stocks and the prospects for new crop planting in the Northern Hemisphere.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Change	Weekly Trend	Sentiment
Euronext (Mais)	Mär 26	192.75 EUR/t	+0.75 EUR	Firm	Slight Bullish
Euronext (Mais)	Jun 26	192.00 EUR/t	+0.25 EUR	Steady	Stable
CBOT	Mär 26	429.00 US¢/bu	+1.25 US¢	Up	Slight Bullish
CBOT	Mai 26	439.50 US¢/bu	+1.00 US¢	Up	Stable
DCE	Mär 26	2,312.00 CNY/t	+6.00 CNY	Up	Stable
DCE	Mai 26	2,336.00 CNY/t	+14.00 CNY	Up	Slight Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US Exports: Remain seasonally strong as Brazil’s exports pivot to soybeans. No significant disruption expected from the SCOTUS tariff decision for now.
• Brazil: ANEC projects February exports at 1.13 million tons (down from 1.32 mln t in Feb 2025), indicating stable to modestly lower supply to the global market.
• Ukraine: Harsh winter—soils frozen up to 1 meter, surface ice layer—threatens timely spring sowing, may reduce supply later in the year if delays persist.
• Speculative Positioning: Traders are maintaining positions around recent highs, waiting for new fundamental impulses.

📊 Fundamentals

• Exchange Volumes & Open Interest: Euronext Corn (Mar/Jun 26): Modest but steady daily volume; CBOT Corn (Mar/May 26): Strong open interest, especially for near contracts—reflecting ongoing hedging activity.
• Global Prices (Spot offers):
  • France (Paris FOB): 0.18 EUR/kg
  • Ukraine (Odesa FOB): 0.17 EUR/kg
  • Ukraine (feed, FCA): 0.25 EUR/kg
  • Popcorn (Brazil, FCA): 0.73 EUR/kg
  • Popcorn (Argentina, FOB): 0.79 EUR/kg

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Ukraine: Deeply frozen soils with a surface ice crust will likely postpone spring planting. If thawing slows, risk of late planting may impact yield potential for summer corn crops.
• Brazil: Favorable conditions for soybean harvest, but early insights on safrinha (second) corn planting weather will be important for Q2/Q3 export flows.
• US Midwest: Near-term weather benign; planting intentions and spring moisture will be decisive for new crop prospects.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025 Output (proj.)	Ending Stocks (proj.)
US	High (steady YOY)	Above average, supporting export potential
Brazil	Strong, slightly below last year’s record	Lean stocks post-harvest
Ukraine	Uncertain, weather-dependent	Risks of reduction if planting delayed
EU	Stable, good carryover	Adequate

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Ukrainian weather for extended delays; risk premium may build if planting windows narrow.
• US corn remains competitive on export markets—watch export sales pace in coming weeks.
• Bullish scenarios may emerge if global inventories tighten due to planting delays or adverse weather in Brazil/US.
• Downside risks: Broad exporter competition, stable stocks, and limited tariff impact temper aggressive upside potential for now.
• Spread strategies between Euronext and CBOT could capture convergent movements, particularly if regional supply shocks materialize.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Contract	Forecast Price Range	Sentiment
Euronext Mar 26	192.00–193.50 EUR/t	Sideways/Stable
CBOT Mar 26	428–432 US¢/bu	Sideways/Bullish bias
DCE Mar 26	2,310–2,325 CNY/t	Stable