Rice Market: Chicago Prices Rebound, Indian & Vietnamese Export Offers Ease

Rice markets are navigating a complex landscape as recent data from CBOT underscores notable price movement across forward contracts. Domestically in the U.S., weather has emerged as a pivotal influence, with forecasts for improved precipitation and warmer conditions in the southern Plains raising expectations of better crop outcomes. While these weather shifts put pressure on wheat and, by extension, rice sentiment, the overall tone remains cautiously optimistic for rice due to stabilized pricing and manageable volatility.

Concurrently, the export front from Asia is displaying signs of moderation. Indian and Vietnamese FOB prices witnessed marginal declines this week, reflecting a gradual ease from recent highs, likely influenced by ample regional supply and reduced short-term demand intensity. The macro picture is shaped not just by weather improvements but also by subdued speculative pressure and careful positioning from investors, especially as U.S. stocks and contract open interests remain stable on CBOT.

[p]For exporters and market participants, these shifts spell opportunity—but also the need for vigilant attention to evolving regional fundamentals and external drivers. With a dynamic interplay between North American growing conditions and Asian export competitiveness, market direction over the coming days hinges on both weather realization and global trading flows. Explore current top rice offers directly below:

📈 Prices

CBOT Rice Futures Contract	Last Close (USD/cwt)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mar 2026	9.94	+0.04 (+0.40%)	Neutral-Bullish
May 2026	10.41	+0.12 (+1.17%)	Strengthening
Jul 2026	10.81	+0.19 (+1.79%)	Firm
Sep 2026	10.94	+0.04 (+0.32%)	Consolidating
Nov 2026	11.19	+0.01 (+0.13%)	Stable
Jan 2027	11.55	+0.01 (+0.04%)	Sideways
Mar 2027	11.81	+0.01 (+0.04%)	Sideways

 

Origin	Type	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev Price	Update Date
IN	all golden, sella	0.97	0.99	2026-02-21
IN	all steam, pr11	0.47	0.49	2026-02-21
IN	al ısteam, sharbati	0.64	0.66	2026-02-21

 

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US Rice Fundamentals: Futures trading shows gradually rising prices, indicating stable to moderately stronger domestic demand and expectations of manageable supply thanks to improved weather outlook for the southern U.S. Plains.
• Asian Export Market: A softening trend for Indian and Vietnamese FOB prices highlights slightly increased export availability, likely due to favorable recent harvests and moderate overseas demand.
• Speculative Positioning: No notable speculative pressure in rice futures, as open interest remains stable and price movements are mostly fundamentals-driven.

📊 Fundamentals & Drivers

• Weather: The Commodity Weather Group forecasts beneficial rain for U.S. wheat and rice areas, improving moisture profiles and aiding crop development, which has tempered price spikes on global grain markets.
• Regional Competition: EU and Black Sea origin grains are exerting competitive pressure on global cereals markets. Although primarily wheat-driven, the sentiment is also impacting rice through wider commodity index adjustments.
• Export Movement: Indian and Vietnamese rice offers have dropped slightly in EUR terms, suggesting easing tightness and stabilization in Asia-Pacific markets.
• USDA Exports: Weekly USDA export sales are due, which could affect short-term sentiment if U.S. rice sales surprise on the upside or downside.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Rainfall expected late next week in the southern U.S., reducing drought risk and promoting rice plant growth.
• Improved weather conditions are forecast to support yield prospects in major rice-producing states.
• No major threatening weather patterns reported in Asian growing belts, sustaining abundant supply for Asian exporters.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Snapshot

• U.S.: Prospects improve with favorable precipitation and steady open interest in forward contracts.
• Asia (India, Vietnam): Continues to lead in supply, with stabilized and slightly easing prices signaling robust export pipelines and adequate inventories.
• Trade Flows: Competitive pressure from other cereals may affect the attractiveness of rice in certain markets, but fundamental demand remains anchored by food security needs across importing nations.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term U.S. rice prices likely to remain firm as planting conditions improve and export prospects stabilize.
• Asian FOB offers may ease further if no weather disruptions arise, creating good buying opportunities for importers.
• Watch for any unexpected shifts in weekly USDA export sales or abrupt weather changes in the southern U.S.
• Market participants should monitor broader grains sentiment, particularly in wheat and maize, for spillover effects.
• Consider phased purchasing strategies to capture further potential softening in Asian export prices.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / FOB Location	Product	Current Price	Direction (3 days)	Comment
CBOT	May 2026 Rice Futures	10.41 USD/cwt	Stable-Firm	Weather supports moderate gains but upside limited
India (FOB New Delhi)	all steam, pr11	0.47 EUR/kg	Slightly Weakening	Exporter competition, stable supply
Vietnam (FOB Hanoi)	long, white, 5%	0.49 EUR/kg	Slight Downward	Ample stocks, little market stress