Vietnamese Rice Exports Surge, but Prices Face Downward Pressure: Full Market Update

The global rice market has entered a dynamic phase as Vietnam reports robust export volumes despite mounting price pressures. In February 2026 alone, Vietnam exported approximately 640,000 tonnes of rice valued at $289.4 million, bringing the total for the first two months to 1.3 million tonnes and $599.3 million. While this marks a 5% rise in export volume year-on-year, the corresponding value dropped by 11.2%—highlighting a significant decline in average export prices. Indeed, the average export price for January–February settled at $464.1 per tonne, down 15.4% from the previous year, showing notable headwinds for producers and exporters.

The Philippines remains by far the biggest importer, taking 47.6% of Vietnam’s rice exports, with China surging to 18.3% share and Ghana at 8.9%. The Chinese market stands out, with export volumes rising more than fivefold, balancing steep falls elsewhere—notably, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which saw trade plummet by 31% and a dramatic 90.9% respectively. Vietnam’s key 5% broken rice currently commands around $365 per tonne, unchanged week-on-week, yet trading is subdued as buyers anticipate further price reductions during the ongoing peak harvest. Meanwhile, shipping logistics are being squeezed by elevated freight costs due to increased insurance premiums and fuel prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—though shipments themselves remain mostly unaffected.

Against this complex backdrop of rising volumes, falling prices, and shifting market shares, this report explores in-depth price movements, critical supply and demand dynamics, fundamental drivers, and an actionable forecast for market participants.

📈 Prices: Latest Futures & Physical Market Overview

Exchange	Month	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Mar 26	11.01 USD/cwt	+0.12 (+1.06%)	Stable, slightly bullish
CBOT	May 26	11.31 USD/cwt	-0.02 (-0.18%)	Range-bound
CBOT	Jul 26	11.57 USD/cwt	-0.08 (-0.69%)	Pressured
Vietnam Physical Market (FOB, Hanoi)
Vietnam	5% broken	365 USD/tonne	Unchanged	Weak demand
Vietnam	Long white 5%	0.48 EUR/kg	-0.01	Softening
India	All golden, sella	0.97 EUR/kg	Unchanged	Stable
India	All steam, pr11	0.47 EUR/kg	Unchanged	Sideways

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Vietnam’s export pace: 1.3 million tonnes exported in Jan–Feb 2026 (+5% y/y), but export value fell 11.2% due to lower prices.
• Average export price: $464.1/tonne (-15.4% y/y).
• Destination trends: Philippines (47.6% share, +17.6% value y/y), China (5.8x volume), Ghana (–31%). Côte d’Ivoire imports fell by –90.9%.
• Trade activity: 5% broken rice at $365/tonne (unchanged), slow trading amid harvest expectations.
• Shipping/freight: Higher costs due to Middle East conflict (insurance, fuel), despite smooth shipments.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Positioning

• Harvest: Vietnam is in peak winter–spring harvest, boosting available supply and pressuring export prices.
• Port Activity: Over 382,000 tonnes moved through southern ports in February, mainly to the Philippines and Africa.
• Speculative Positioning: No evidence of major speculative buildup, with futures prices relatively range-bound and subdued volumes.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact on Yields

• Vietnam: Weather has remained supportive across the Mekong Delta, enabling high winter–spring crop yields.
• India: No major disruptions reported; positive conditions for upcoming planting season.
• External risks: El Niño watch remains relevant but currently exerts limited direct pressure; any escalation may impact subsequent crops.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Vietnam: Rising exports, competitive price position, increased share to China.
• India: Prices steady on FOB basis; maintains leadership in parboiled, basmati, and specialty rices.
• Africa: Demand from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire remains volatile, with Ghana’s volumes down and Côte d’Ivoire dropping sharply.

Country	Recent Export Volume (‘000 t, Jan–Feb)	Top Destinations	YoY Change (%)
Vietnam	1,300	Philippines, China, Ghana	+5%
India	[n/a]	Middle East, Africa, EU	Stable

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect further downside price risk for Vietnamese rice amid robust supply and buyer reluctance.
• Exporters: Monitor Chinese demand for continued strength, while diversifying away from volatile African markets.
• Importers: Consider stock-building as prices approach or move below $365/tonne for 5% broken rice.
• Traders: Watch CBOT for signs of short-covering or any reversal in speculative sentiment.
• Monitor logistics costs, as increased freight charges could offset savings from lower FOB prices.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Vietnam 5% broken (FOB): $360 – $370/tonne, risk remains to the downside.
• CBOT Mar 26 futures: 10.90 – 11.10 USD/cwt, stable to slightly bearish.
• India Parboiled/1121 (FOB): 0.96 – 0.98 EUR/kg, stable.