Australia Grain & Feed Outlook 2025/26: Record Barley Crop, Second-Largest Wheat Harvest and Strong Export Flows

🇦🇺 Australia Grain & Feed Outlook 2025/26: Record Barley Crop, Second-Largest Wheat Harvest and Strong Export Flows

CMB News | Grains & Feed | January 2026

Australia enters the 2025/26 marketing year with exceptionally strong grain fundamentals, highlighted by a record barley crop, the second-largest wheat harvest on record, and sustained export competitiveness into Asian markets. Despite a late and uneven start to the winter cropping season, favorable late-season conditions delivered outstanding yields across most regions. In contrast, rice production collapses due to severe irrigation water constraints, sharply increasing import needs.

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📌 Market Snapshot

• Wheat production: 37.0 million tons (2nd highest on record)
• Wheat exports: 27.0 million tons (+14% y/y)
• Barley production: 15.5 million tons (record)
• Barley exports: 8.6 million tons (2nd highest on record)
• Sorghum production: 2.6 million tons, almost fully export-oriented
• Rice production: 158,000 tons (–58% y/y)
• Rice imports: 285,000 tons (record)

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🌾 Wheat: Yield-Driven Strength Despite Challenging Season

Australia’s MY 2025/26 wheat production is forecast at 37.0 million tons, 8.5% above last season and 34% above the 10-year average. This outcome is notable given a late seasonal start in Western Australia and below-average rainfall across South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales during early spring.

Key drivers:

• Strong late-season rainfall and “soft finish” supported grain fill
• Cooler temperatures in October–November reduced crop stress
• National average yield projected as the second-highest on record

Exports

• Wheat exports forecast at 27.0 million tons, the third-highest level on record
• Early-season shipments totaled 2.8 million tons in the first two months, the second-strongest start ever
• Major destinations: Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea
• China’s share has declined to around 4–5%, but remains an upside risk if demand returns

Ending stocks are projected at ~5.1 million tons, providing flexibility should global prices strengthen later in the season.

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🌾 Barley: Record Output, China Dominates Trade

Barley is the standout performer in 2025/26.

• Production: 15.5 million tons, a new all-time record
• Yield: Second-highest on record, 26% above the 10-year average
• Area: +3.9% year on year

Structural shifts toward high-yielding feed barley continue to lift output, while reducing the share of malting-grade barley.

Exports

• Barley exports forecast at 8.6 million tons
• China accounts for ~75% of total shipments, following normalization of trade relations
• Other traditional markets (Japan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam) have been partially displaced

Domestic barley consumption rebounds to 5.8 million tons, driven mainly by livestock feed demand.

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🌽 Sorghum: Export-Led Market with China at the Core

• Production: 2.6 million tons, fifth consecutive above-average crop
• Exports: 2.5 million tons, near record levels
• China absorbs ~95% of Australian sorghum exports

Australia benefits from tariff-free access to China, unlike U.S. sorghum, which still faces duties. Domestic sorghum use remains minimal, with feedlots preferring wheat and barley.

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🍚 Rice: Water Constraints Force Sharp Production Cut

Rice is the clear outlier in Australia’s grain complex.

• Production: 158,000 tons, down 58% year on year
• Planted area: Cut to 20,000 hectares, lowest since the 2019 drought
• Cause: Severely reduced irrigation water availability and water prices rising to AU$300–400/ML

Trade Impact

• Rice imports surge to a record 285,000 tons
• Exports fall by more than 50% to 130,000 tons
• Main suppliers: Thailand, India, Vietnam

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🔎 CMB Outlook

Australia’s 2025/26 grain balance is export-heavy and Asia-focused. Record barley supply and a massive wheat crop ensure Australia remains a key price-setter in regional markets, particularly for China and Southeast Asia.

However, water availability is emerging as a critical structural risk for irrigated crops such as rice. Looking ahead, wheat and barley exports will remain sensitive to Chinese demand re-entry, while sorghum continues to benefit from trade policy asymmetries.

Bottom line:

• Bullish for Australian export availability
• Neutral-to-bearish for prices due to global oversupply
• Rice structurally import-dependent in 2025/26

Source: USDA FAS – Grain and Feed Update, Canberra (AS2026-0001)