CMB Edible Oils Market Report – Tunisia Set to Become World’s Second-Largest Olive Oil Producer in 2025/26

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🔵 Executive Summary

Tunisia is projected to become the world’s second-largest olive oil producer in the 2025/26 season, overtaking both Italy and Greece, according to the latest forecasts from the International Olive Council (IOC). A sharp production rebound positions Tunisia as a key global supplier at a time when global olive oil output is expected to decline by 4% year on year, supporting medium-term price sensitivity.

🫒 1 | Global Olive Oil Production Rankings – 2025/26 (IOC Forecast)

Rank Country Production YoY Change
1 Spain 1.372 million tonnes −3%
2 Tunisia 450,000 tonnes +32%
3 Italy 300,000 tonnes +21%
4 Turkey 290,000 tonnes −43%
5 Greece 220,000 tonnes −12%

📌 Key shift: Tunisia climbs two positions compared with 2024/25, when it ranked fourth globally.

🇹🇳 2 | Tunisia’s Production Surge Explained

  • Output forecast: 450,000 tonnes

  • Recovery driven by:

    • Improved climatic conditions

    • Alternate-bearing cycle rebound

    • Better orchard productivity

This marks one of Tunisia’s strongest olive oil seasons in recent years, reinforcing its role as a strategic Mediterranean supplier.

🌍 3 | Comparison With 2024/25 Season

2024/25 ranking:

  1. Spain

  2. Turkey

  3. Tunisia

  4. Greece

  5. Italy

2025/26 outlook:

  • Turkey and Greece drop sharply due to poor harvest conditions

  • Italy recovers but remains behind Tunisia

  • Spain retains global leadership despite a marginal decline

📉 4 | Global Supply Context

  • Global production (2025/26): ~3.44 million tonnes

  • YoY change: −4%

Despite Tunisia’s strong rebound, global output is weighed down by:

  • Severe declines in Turkey

  • Lower production in Greece

  • Slight easing in Spain

📈 5 | CMB Market Interpretation

Market Factor Impact
Tunisia export availability Strongly positive
Mediterranean supply balance Selective tightness
Global price direction Supportive bias
EU sourcing dynamics Shifting toward North Africa
Bulk vs bottled trade Bulk volumes increase

Insight: Tunisia’s rise reshapes Mediterranean olive oil trade flows, particularly in bulk exports to the EU, offsetting supply losses elsewhere.

🔮 6 | CMB Outlook (2025/26)

  • Short term: Increased Tunisian export offers, especially bulk grades

  • Medium term: Continued price sensitivity due to lower global output

  • Key risk: Weather volatility during harvest and oil extraction phase

Outlook Summary:
Tunisia’s production rebound will stabilise global supply, but not fully offset declines elsewhere, keeping the olive oil market structurally firm.

🛒 7 | Strategic Takeaways

  • Importers: Reassess sourcing strategies toward Tunisia

  • Traders: Expect higher liquidity in bulk olive oil contracts

  • Producers: Tunisia gains pricing leverage in EU tenders

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