Corn Market: Brazil’s Harvest Delays, Ukrainian Export Race & US Weakness Shape Trends

The global corn market is at a pivotal juncture, driven primarily by complex developments in weather, harvest progress, and shifting trade flows, with the heart of the narrative unfolding across three continents. In Brazil, persistent rainfall in key central corn-producing regions has caused significant delays to the first harvest – as of February 20th, just 28% was completed, notably behind the long-term average of 37%. Planting progress for the crucial second (safrinha) crop has also been slow, reaching only 50% of planned acreage versus the usual 64%. However, clearer skies are forecast for the next 7–10 days, offering hope for catch-up, although the risk of lower yields remains, especially if subsequent rains return. In Argentina, by contrast, dry weather could further constrain yield prospects, suggesting both South American powerhouses are wrestling with output risks.

Against this South American backdrop, Ukraine’s corn export pace offers a tale of two trends: February volumes surged 24% year-over-year, yet cumulative season exports are still 30% below last year due to a sluggish first half. The pressure is on Kyiv to ship another 11.3 million tons by season’s end to meet ambitious targets amid strong US competition and lackluster world demand. Meanwhile, US export sales have softened, with the latest weekly figures disappointingly below market expectations, reflecting ongoing global price competitiveness and muted bullish sentiment. Korea’s tender prices reinforce global price pressure, and speculative activity remains muted. For market participants, these dynamics highlight reasons for both caution and tactical positioning as the interplay of weather, trade, and demand will set the tone through the spring.

📈 Market Prices

Major Exchange Settlements (as of Feb 26–27, 2026)

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext	Mar 26	203.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext	Jun 26	192.75 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral
CBOT	Mar 26	434.00 USc/bu	+0.17%	Stable
CBOT	May 26	443.25 USc/bu	-0.06%	Soft
DCE (China)	Mar 26	2331.00 CNY/t	+0.69%	Moderately Positive

Spot & Export Market Prices (Supplementary)

Origin	Location/Term	Type	Price	Prev. Price	Updated
Ukraine	Odesa/FCA	Yellow Feed	0.24 EUR/kg	0.25 EUR/kg	2026-02-26
France	Paris/FOB	Yellow	0.18 EUR/kg	0.18 EUR/kg	2026-02-20
Brazil	Dordrecht/FCA	Popcorn	0.73 EUR/kg	0.73 EUR/kg	2026-02-20
Argentina	Buenos Aires/FOB	Popcorn (40/42)	0.79 EUR/kg	0.79 EUR/kg	2026-02-20

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Brazil: Persistent rains delay first harvest and slow safrinha planting; only 28% of first crop harvested by Feb 20 (vs. 37% avg.), second crop at 50% sown (vs. 64%). Dry weather over the next 7–10 days may accelerate progress.
• Argentina: Dry spell threatens further reduction in crop yield potential.
• Ukraine: February corn exports up 24% y/y at 1.94 million tons, yet full-season cumulative exports (10.72 million tons) remain 30% below previous year. Reaching 22 million tons for 2025/26 will require strong export surge amid intense US competition and soft demand.
• US: Weekly export sales for week ending Feb 19: 682.8kt, below expectations of 0.9-1.8Mt; down 29% w/w, but +1.1% y/y for this week. Latest sales do not support a bullish impulse.
• Global: Korea May shipment prices offer at $245-246/ton C&F, price pressure persists (approx. $200/ton ex-Ukraine port).

📊 Fundamentals & Inventories

• Inventories: Ukraine’s slower pace in early-season exports means stocks remain larger than usual for this time of year, unless export pace quickens.
• US: No significant fundamental shift; solid but unspectacular export numbers.
• South America: Uncertain output in both Brazil (weather risk) and Argentina (dry stress).

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil (Central regions): After weeks of rain, a window of 7–10 days of dry weather is forecast, likely aiding fieldwork. However, the rain delays may have already constrained yield potential for first harvest, and safrinha crop faces risk if further rainfall returns or dry sets in post-planting.
• Argentina: Persistently dry conditions fraught with downside yield risk, especially without imminent rain.

🌐 Production & Trade Summary

• Ukraine: Cumulative exports 30% below prior year; strong surge needed to meet annual export target.
• South America: Both Brazil and Argentina battling weather disruptions, impacting global supply outlook into spring/summer shipping period.
• US: Holding steady in export pace, but losing some ground to aggressive Black Sea and impending South American offers.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term risks are balanced: better field weather in Brazil may accelerate harvest but prior rain risks cannot be ignored, especially for later yields.
• Ukraine’s rapid export catch-up unlikely without stronger global demand or market-driven price stimulus.
• Exporters should monitor Korean and Asian tender pricing for near-term guidance.
• US exporters face headwinds—hedge positions against further price softness unless export sales rebound materially.
• Watch the pace of Ukrainian port shipments; if bottlenecks appear, price volatility may flare up.
• Consumers/buyers: price dips offer value as supply risks persist for late spring/summer.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Direction	3-Day Range	Bias
Euronext Mar 26	Sideways/Soft	201–205 EUR/t	Neutral-to-Soft: ample supply, but weather risk supports floor.
CBOT Mar 26	Marginally Lower	431–436 USc/bu	Bearish tilt due to uninspiring US export sales.
DCE Mar 26	Stable	2320–2340 CNY/t	Neutral: Import outlook and local supply balanced.