Corn Market Faces Brazilian Crop Revision and Weather Risk: Euronext, CBOT & Global Outlook

The international corn market currently stands at a crossroads, shaped primarily by pivotal developments in Brazil and steady but cautious moves across major exchanges. Central to this narrative is Brazil’s latest crop forecast: The state-run agency Conab has downgraded its prediction for the country’s crucial second (Safrinha) corn crop to 109.26 million tonnes, noticeably beneath the January estimate and 3.5% below last year’s production level. This move instantly tightens supply prospects for the second half of the year—a period when Brazilian exports often dominate global trade and directly compete with US shipments.

Meanwhile, Euronext and CBOT corn prices remain steady, finding support from the Brazilian yield downgrade but facing no acute directional momentum for now. Planting progress in Brazil has accelerated, with 21.6% of the acreage sown by early February, outpacing last season and remaining on pace with multiyear averages. However, the pace of this progress hinges tightly on February rainfall and the ability to complete soybean harvesting—factors that could swing global availability. Market sentiment, therefore, remains on edge, with any adverse weather potentially sparking further volatility. In this climate of restrained gains but clear upside risk, European and global market participants closely monitor Brazilian yield updates, US acreage expectations, and shifting weather patterns as they recalibrate trading strategies for the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext Corn (EUR/t)
Mar 26	189.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Steady
Jun 26	189.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Steady
Aug 26	193.25 EUR/t	0.00%	Steady
Nov 26	193.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Steady
CBOT Corn (US-Cent/bu)
Mar 26	431.75 USc/bu	+0.12%	Neutral
May 26	442.00 USc/bu	+0.06%	Neutral
Jul 26	450.00 USc/bu	+0.06%	Neutral
Sep 26	450.50 USc/bu	+0.22%	Neutral
DCE Corn (CNY/t)
Mar 26	2,306 CNY/t	+0.13%	Stable
May 26	2,322 CNY/t	+0.13%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Factors

• Brazil’s revised Safrinha forecast (109.26 Mt) falls 1.2 Mt short of January’s estimate, sharpening second-half global supply risks.
• 2025’s Safrinha sowing has accelerated, covering 21.6% of fields by early February—above last year but in line with the recent average, mitigating yield risk for now.
• Weather & soybean harvest progress remain decisive: Delays in either could further reduce Brazilian corn output and tighten global export availabilities, especially from July onward.
• Brazilian Safrinha corn is pivotal for the world supply in H2 and competes directly with US exports; changes here quickly ripple into global prices.
• Euronext and CBOT markets reflect cautious optimism but are highly sensitive to further production downgrades or weather news.

📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers

• Global stocks remain under scrutiny. A lower Brazilian crop could shrink world ending stocks, particularly if US acreage or yields fall short in the coming months.
• Speculative participation is restrained but positioned to react to fresh supply shocks, especially with current trends steady.
• Recent USDA and Conab updates point to a rebalancing of world corn flows in H2 2026. Brazilian competition with the US will shape export dynamics and pricing.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

• Safrinha sowing success in Brazil remains weather-dependent. Timely February rains are crucial for maximizing yields and safeguarding acreage. Dry spells or late soy harvests could delay corn planting, raising risk of lower output.
• No widespread drought reported yet, maintaining guarded optimism. Weather in February and March will determine whether the crop can recover or face further downward revision.
• Elsewhere, US weather remains in a watch-and-wait mode, with outlooks for early spring rains and soil moisture levels becoming important in March.

📊 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	Production Outlook	Year-on-Year Change	Stock Trend
Brazil	109.26 Mt	-3.5%	Lower
USA	Stable (watching 2026 acreage/yields)	–	Flat
EU	No major change	Flat	Flat
China	Stable	Flat	Possible uptick in imports

💡 Trading Outlook & Action Points

• Monitor ongoing Brazilian weather—further downgrades could trigger upside volatility in global prices.
• Track pace of Safrinha planting; rapidly completed sowing within the optimal climate window may limit risk, but delays bear watching.
• Expect market sentiment to turn bullish on any additional negative production news from Brazil or the US in coming weeks.
• European buyers should consider lock-in opportunities on current Euronext contracts during periods of price stability.
• Speculative positioning is expected to increase in reaction to new crop data or weather shocks.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Bias
Euronext (Mar 26)	189.50 EUR/t	188.50 – 191.00 EUR/t	Stable–Slightly Firm
CBOT (Mar 26)	431.75 USc/bu	429.00 – 435.00 USc/bu	Stable
DCE (Mar 26)	2,306 CNY/t	2,300 – 2,320 CNY/t	Stable