Russia Blocks Inspection of Grain Ships Passing Through the Bosphorus

European Grain Markets

• After falling during the week, the wheat futures in Paris firmed slightly yesterday, rising above €220/t. Despite the rise, grain markets remain searching for direction. Some analysts believe that we have already reached the bottom and prices should now be rising, while others are of the opinion that the upcoming harvest will depress prices further.
• The August corn futures seem to be trying to consolidate around 213-4 €/t with the upcoming June futures expiry in 4 days. Canola is not giving up on trying to get above 400 €/t, succeeding briefly yesterday, but eventually closing just below that level helped by the rise in oil.

American Grain Markets

• Firmness in all US markets except corn, which is weakening after a strong rally late last week. CBOT wheat received support from weather in China, where about 20MT of wheat remained under water, according to analysts. More rain is expected there over the next few days just as harvest should be going on in full force.
• Soybeans, meal, and soybean oil are up as 66% of Midwest areas were drier than usual as of late May, and weather models are leaning toward a drought this month. A weakening dollar is also supporting the soybean complex as well as elevated oil and palm oil.

Black Sea Grain Markets

• It seems the grain corridor was only extended on paper. On 18 May, the grain deal was extended for another two months, as first announced by Erdogan before the ballot vote, but Russia continues to block grain transport by delaying inspections.
• Yesterday Russia announced it would block ships to the port of Pivdenniy until all parties involved remove barriers to ammonia exports from Russia. According to the UN, only 33 ships were allowed into Ukrainian ports in May – less than half the number in April.

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