The millet market is currently experiencing modest price increases in several regions, particularly within China, where local supply constraints and seasonal factors are shaping short-term dynamics. With only 33.86% of the total millet harvest remaining in marketable reserves—primarily held at the grassroots and intermediary level—current stocks are significantly lower than last year, especially in key provinces like Jilin and Shanxi. The onset of spring planting has further tightened available supplies, as farmers focus on fieldwork and limit grain sales.
Meanwhile, demand is mixed: some grain traders are holding back stocks in anticipation of higher prices, while most millet processors are showing limited buying interest due to sufficient processing inventories. Farmers remain reluctant to sell at lower prices, and the narrow window for post-planting sales is lending additional support to millet prices.
Globally, price movements are varied, with stable-to-firm trends in Ukraine and Poland, and a slight softening in Chinese export prices. Weather conditions in major producing regions, particularly in northern China and Eastern Europe, are being closely monitored for their potential impact on 2025 crop yields. In this environment, market participants should remain alert to evolving supply-demand signals and weather risks, as these will likely set the tone for millet pricing in the coming weeks.
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Millet kernels
hulled, yellow
99.90%
FOB 0.84 €/kg
(from CN)
Millet kernels
hulled, yellow
99.95%
FOB 0.76 €/kg
(from CN)
Millet seeds
raw, yellow
98%
FCA 0.32 €/kg
(from PL)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Product | Purity | Organic | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Millet kernels, hulled, yellow | 99.90% | Yes | Beijing | FOB | 0.84 | -0.01 | Softening |
| China | Millet kernels, hulled, yellow | 99.95% | No | Beijing | FOB | 0.76 | -0.01 | Softening |
| Poland | Millet seeds, raw, yellow | 98% | No | Kiełczygłow | FCA | 0.32 | +0.01 | Firm |
| Poland | Millet seeds, hulled, yellow | 99.95% | No | Kiełczygłow | FCA | 0.48 | +0.02 | Firm |
| Ukraine | Millet kernels, hulled, yellow | 99% | Yes | Odesa | FCA | 1.20 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Ukraine | Millet kernels, hulled, yellow | 98% | No | Odesa | FCA | 0.41 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Chinese marketable millet stocks are at 33.86% of total production, lower than last year, especially in Jilin and Shanxi.
- Spring planting reduces available market supplies as farmers prioritise fieldwork.
- Grain traders are holding stocks, anticipating higher prices, but most processors are not actively buying due to sufficient inventories.
- Internationally, Ukrainian and Polish prices are steady to firm, indicating solid demand or limited exportable surpluses.
📊 Fundamentals
- Farmers in China are reluctant to sell at low prices, supported by limited post-planting sales windows.
- Processing inventory remains high, keeping processor demand muted in China.
- Recent millet market reports confirm similar supply tightness and cautious buying interest, with little change in overall sentiment since the last period.
- Speculative activity is low, with the market largely driven by physical supply and demand factors.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- Northern China: Weather is currently favourable for millet planting, but forecasts indicate possible dryness in late May, which could stress young crops if prolonged.
- Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Poland): Temperatures are above average, with adequate soil moisture—good for crop establishment, but localised storms may cause some disruption.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Est. Production (Mt) | 2024 Est. Ending Stocks (Mt) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 2.1 | 0.7 | -7% |
| India | 10.5 | 1.2 | +2% |
| Ukraine | 0.18 | 0.04 | -3% |
| Poland | 0.06 | 0.01 | +0% |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For exporters: Consider holding stocks if possible; short-term price support is likely as Chinese supply remains tight and spring fieldwork limits sales.
- For importers/processors: Monitor weather developments in China and Eastern Europe closely; consider forward purchases if weather risks escalate.
- For traders: Volatility may increase if adverse weather emerges; watch for processor re-entry into the market as inventories decline.
- For farmers: Selling pressure is low; evaluate post-planting sales opportunities if prices strengthen in late May/early June.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing (FOB, CN) | 0.84 | 0.84–0.85 | Stable to Slightly Firm |
| Kiełczygłow (FCA, PL) | 0.32 | 0.32–0.33 | Firm |
| Odesa (FCA, UA) | 0.41 | 0.41–0.42 | Stable |
