Millet Market: Post-Holiday Supply Constraints Meet Seasonal Demand Slowdown

China’s millet market is at a delicate crossroads as the aftermath of the Lunar New Year continues to shape near-term prices and availability. Downstream demand is recovering only gradually, with buyers pacing their procurement carefully according to actual needs and current inventory levels. Many farmers remain in holiday mode, meaning tradable supply in the spot market is limited. Compounding this, certain traders are actively withholding stock, seeking to support or elevate domestic prices in the short term. This configuration has fostered a positive price sentiment since February’s end, with local markets reflecting firmer offers and limited liquidity. Nevertheless, as temperatures rise nationwide and millet enters its traditional off-season, processing facilities are already scaling back operations, and raw grain consumption is expected to shrink.

This impending demand contraction suggests the potential for price softening beyond mid-March. Current European price offers for millet show a mixed pattern, with organic Chinese origins reflecting firm FOB prices, while some Ukrainian and Polish products have exhibited small fluctuations but no major shifts. For stakeholders, the central narrative is one of cautious optimism in early March—balanced by the awareness that a seasonal downturn is likely to curb price momentum later in the month.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Origin	Location	Purity	Organic	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Updated	Market Sentiment
Millet kernels (hulled, yellow)	CN	Beijing	99.90%	Yes	0.88	0.87	+0.01	2026-02-26	Firming
Millet kernels (hulled, yellow)	CN	Beijing	99.95%	No	0.77	0.78	-0.01	2026-02-26	Slightly Softer
Millet kernels (hulled, yellow)	UA	Odesa	99%	Yes	1.20	1.20	0.00	2026-02-26	Stable
Millet seeds (inshell, red)	UA	Odesa	98%	No	0.53	0.51	+0.02	2026-02-26	Increasing
Millet seeds (inshell, yellow)	UA	Odesa	98%	No	0.51	0.49	+0.02	2026-02-26	Increasing
Millet kernels (hulled, yellow)	UA	Odesa	98%	No	0.51	0.51	0.00	2026-02-26	Stable
Millet seeds (raw, yellow)	PL	Kiełczygłow	98%	No	0.45	0.46	-0.01	2026-02-26	Slightly Softer
Millet seeds (hulled, yellow)	PL	Kiełczygłow	99.95%	No	0.77	0.75	+0.02	2026-02-26	Firming
Millet seeds (hulled, yellow)	UA	Odesa		No	0.22	0.22	0.00	2026-02-20	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Post-holiday period sees downstream demand recovering slowly as buyers source only as needed.
• Most farmers are still in a holiday mood, keeping spot supply limited and supporting current prices.
• Some grain traders are deliberately holding back stock, creating upward pressure on local prices.
• However, with temperatures rising, millet is entering its traditional weak sales period in China.
• Rice mills are reducing operations, meaning less raw millet is processed and consumed.
• Cautiously bullish price action likely to persist until mid-March, but a drop is possible in late March as demand falls away.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Inventories: Grain merchants balance between demand and warehouse holdings, determining purchase pace to avoid overstocking.
• Processing Rates: Declining mill utilization rates point to weaker short-term raw millet demand.
• Export Offers: European market prices are mostly steady-to-firm for high-purity or organic origins, particularly from China and Ukraine.
• Trader Speculation: Reports of inventory being held back in anticipation of higher prices are substantiated by limited spot supply.

☁️ Weather & Crop Impact Outlook

• Current weather in core millet regions of China is warming, which usually triggers the off-season for millet consumption.
• No indications of weather threats to stored crops, but regional warmth is expected to limit processor offtake and slow market activity.
• Over the next week, continued mild conditions are forecast, further lowering prospects for a late-season demand spike.

🌏 Production & Stocks Overview

• China remains a key producer and supplier in the global millet market, with post-holiday trade patterns heavily influencing domestic pricing.
• Ukraine and Poland maintain a visible presence in export markets, though seasonal supply flows are steady and unremarkable.
• Importing countries are likely to pause major purchases unless attractive price dips emerge late March.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-Term: Expect prices to remain well-supported through the first half of March, especially for high-quality and organic millet.
• Mid-March & Beyond: Watch for a possible price rollover or correction as demand seasonally weakens and processing slows.
• Sellers: Consider staggered sales or holding stocks if possible until closer to mid-March; reassess strategy as mills reduce offtake.
• Buyers: Procure on dips or cover only immediate requirements; late March may provide better value as supplies loosen.
• Exporters: Monitor Chinese market movements closely, as domestic policy or trade flow shifts could quickly affect global pricing.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Origins)

Origin	Product	Price Outlook (EUR/kg)	Direction
China	Hulled, organic	0.88-0.90	Stable to Firm
Ukraine	Hulled, non-organic	0.51-0.53	Stable to Slightly Firmer
Poland	Hulled, non-organic	0.75-0.78	Stable

Price risk over the next three days is minimal, with only minor adjustments likely as the market transitions further into the off-season.