Morocco Grain & Feed Update 2025/26: Wheat Import Subsidies Extended as Weather Risks Keep Market Import-Dependent

🇲🇦 Morocco Grain & Feed Update 2025/26: Wheat Import Subsidies Extended as Weather Risks Keep Market Import-Dependent

CMB News | Grains & Feed | January 2026

Morocco remains structurally dependent on grain imports in the 2025/26 marketing year, as delayed rainfall and below-average vegetation conditions continue to cloud domestic production prospects. In response, the government has extended bread wheat import subsidies until April 30, 2026, reinforcing steady import demand and encouraging stock building amid high food inflation.

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📌 Market Snapshot

• Bread wheat import subsidy extended until 30 April 2026
• Wheat production 2025/26: 3.5 million tons
• Wheat imports 2025/26: 7.2 million tons
• Barley imports 2025/26: 900,000 tons
• Key supplier: European Union (France dominant)
• Weather risk: February–March rainfall decisive for crop outcome

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🌾 Production: Late Rains Delay Planting, Outlook Hinges on Spring Weather

The late arrival of rainfall in December 2025 delayed wheat and barley planting across large parts of Morocco, with sowing in some regions extending into mid-January 2026. Industry estimates place the total planted area at around 4.5 million hectares, though the final figure will depend on rainfall distribution and late planting decisions.

While the season has started slightly better than 2024/25, vegetation indices (NDVI) remain below historical averages, highlighting ongoing moisture stress. According to market participants, rainfall between February and the end of March will be critical in determining yields and overall production success. USDA’s first official outlook for MY 2026/27 is expected in April 2026.

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🏛️ Policy: Bread Wheat Import Subsidy Extended

On December 31, 2025, the Moroccan government confirmed the extension of its flat-rate subsidy for bread wheat imports through April 30, 2026. The policy aims to:

• Maintain low domestic bread prices
• Mitigate inflationary pressures
• Encourage strategic stock accumulation

The continuation of the subsidy provides clear visibility for importers and underpins sustained buying interest during the first half of 2026.

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🚢 Trade: EU Wheat Dominates, Black Sea Volumes Decline

Wheat Imports (MY 2025/26)

Morocco is expected to import 7.2 million tons of wheat, unchanged from previous estimates.

• EU-27: 3.63 million tons in MY 2024/25; +55% y/y in early MY 2025/26
• Canada: Rising volumes (+53% y/y early season)
• Russia & Ukraine: Imports down sharply due to logistical constraints and shipping delays
• United States: Still marginal, but early-season shipments increased sharply from a low base

Overall wheat imports in the early part of the marketing year (June–October 2025) are up 14% year on year, reflecting both policy support and weak domestic supply.

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🌾 Wheat Balance Sheet 2025/26 (Key Figures)

• Production: 3.5 million tons
• Imports: 7.2 million tons
• Total consumption: 10.05 million tons
  • Food, seed & industrial use: 9.8 million tons
• Ending stocks: 1.22 million tons

Despite higher imports, stocks remain moderate, underlining Morocco’s limited buffer against further production shortfalls.

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🌾 Barley: Feed Demand Keeps Imports Firm

Barley production in 2025/26 is forecast at 950,000 tons, well below domestic demand.

• Imports: 900,000 tons
• Use: Primarily feed, reflecting the importance of barley in the livestock sector
• Suppliers: Mainly EU origins, with declining shipments from Ukraine and Russia

Ending stocks are expected at 176,000 tons, leaving little room for supply disruption.

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🔎 CMB Outlook

Morocco’s grain market in 2025/26 remains policy-driven and import-oriented. The extension of wheat import subsidies ensures steady demand through spring 2026, while weather uncertainty keeps upside risk firmly in place.

For exporters, Morocco continues to offer reliable demand, particularly for EU and Canadian wheat. For the market, the key variable remains rainfall in February–March, which will determine whether Morocco can reduce import needs later in the year or remains heavily reliant on the global market.

Source: USDA FAS – Grain and Feed Update, Rabat (MO2026-0002)