The past trading week started without any special events. It was rather the Turkish hazelnut exporters who took the initiative due to a lack of demand and tried to force sales. However, the situation changed in the middle of the week. Some Turkish media reported that the TMO would not act as a seller in the market before April. This probably also confirmed the decision of hazelnut farmers who still hold raw material not to sell at the moment.
As a result, the market now found itself in a situation where hardly any raw material was delivered to the market and traders’ stocks are also very low, so the power to shape prices now lies with the exporters. This is the only group willing to sell that still has stocks and is now trying to get the best possible deal for themselves. Accordingly, the hazelnut price rose sharply from midweek onwards.
Adjustment of the export price lists
The hazelnut price increase was quickly communicated via an adjustment of the export price lists, which led to uncertainty among some buyers. After the market had calmed down somewhat in the previous week, people had hoped for orientation and a more moderate hazelnut price. Now, however, some saw their chances dwindling and reluctantly closed. This selling, as well as further buying in the Turkish domestic market, has now led to some firming of levels. Especially the speculation about a possible selling price of TMO beyond 64 TRY/kg (current market price is about 61 TRY/kg), as well as the unwillingness of farmers to sell at the current level, does not seem to offer any prospect of improvement. Therefore, the strategy of many buyers was to cover most of the remaining demand.
Mood, lack of demand, shortage
To put this into perspective, however, it should be said that the hazelnut market is currently supported by a certain dynamic. Thus, we have mood changes from activity due to lack of demand to determine due to shortage in very short intervals. This has also led to the fact that the intervals between calibrations have become very long within a short period of time, which was not to be expected especially with the larger calibrations. Overall, the market is currently driven more by psychology than by hard facts, which is not unusual for the hazelnut market.
A look at the foreign exchange markets shows no significant changes. On trend, we see that the Turkish lira is continuously weakening slightly, which somewhat dampens the price increase due to the raw material, but by far does not compensate for it.
For the coming week, we eagerly await whether the momentum will be revived once again by emerging demand or whether there will be some calming down.
- Local media report a statement by the TMO not to be a seller on the market before April.
- As a result, commodity and export prices rise significantly from midweek onwards.
- Buyers see the chances of improvement dwindling due to the new price increase and decide to cover parts of the remaining demand.
- The seller’s market is very much characterised by soft facts at the moment.
- The Turkish lira is certainly continuing to weaken slightly against the euro.
- The price lists of the individual exporters continue to show clear differences, but the differences are becoming increasingly smaller overall.