Rice Market Rises: CBOT Trends, Demand Shifts & Weather in Focus (Feb 2026)

The global rice market is currently navigating a period of growing price resilience, as indicated by the latest trading data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Key contracts have seen mild but steady upticks, supported by a cautiously optimistic sentiment among market participants heading into the late winter and spring planting season. With March 2026 rice trading at $9.88/cwt (up 0.15%), May at $10.28/cwt (+0.54%), and July at $10.61/cwt (+0.47%), the board reflects firming prices across the forward curve. This firming is rooted in a mix of robust demand, moderate volume (notably in May with open interest at 10,239), and slight changes in day-to-day positioning.

Supply-side factors, including acreage intentions and weather outlooks for major Asian growers, as well as developments in India and Vietnam, continue to play a critical role. Export offers from these origins show FOB prices in the €0.47–0.97/kg range for standard grades, with organic and specialty rices commanding premium prices up to €1.80/kg. The combination of steady futures gains and a subtle easing in spot physical offers (especially out of India, reflecting competitive tension) signals a market at the crossroads: tightening stocks and potential weather disruptions are clashing with recent production optimism. Market participants should closely monitor upcoming USDA planting reports and regional weather forecasts that could tip the balance into late Q1.

📈 Prices & Market Summary

Contract	Last Price (USD/cwt)	Change	Volume	Open Interest	Market Sentiment
Mar 2026	9.88	+0.15%	13	1463	Stable/Firm
May 2026	10.28	+0.54%	30	10239	Firm; High Activity
Jul 2026	10.61	+0.47%	9	404	Positive
Sep 2026	10.92	+0.09%	2	893	Stable
Nov 2026	11.24	+0.04%	2	28	Firm
Jan 2027	11.59	+0.39%	5	10	Stable

🌍 Physical Market (Supplement)

Type	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg, FOB)	Prev. Price	Latest Update
All golden, sella	IN	New Delhi	0.97	0.99	2026-02-21
All steam, pr11	IN	New Delhi	0.47	0.49	2026-02-21
Alğısteam, sharbati	IN	New Delhi	0.64	0.66	2026-02-21

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• CBOT contracts are gaining steadily, reflecting buying interest on both near and far contracts: March-April activity is center-stage, with May registering the highest open interest.
• Recent spot price declines in Indian offers indicate strong competition and potential oversupply, but fundamentals remain supportive on futures.
• Asian exporters (India, Vietnam) maintain robust outflows, but local reports cite logistical bottlenecks and port congestion as potential headwinds.
• USDA acreage and inventory updates due in the coming month will act as a key pivot point for near-term sentiment.

📊 Fundamental Data & Market Positioning

• Open interest is concentrated in May (10,239 contracts), signaling strong hedging activity and expectation of near-term volatility.
• Volumes are modest but stable, with most actively traded months corresponding to physical shipment schedules.
• Price momentum is mildly bullish based on daily changes (+0.15% to +0.54% across main months), even as physical offers are marking slight declines in India.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Weather risk remains high for South and Southeast Asian producers. Early forecasts point to possible erratic pre-monsoon precipitation in India and Vietnam during the spring, which could delay planting or stress young crops.
• In the US and South America, mild winter conditions aid field preparation but drought maps will need close monitoring for sustained dryness into April.
• Weather remains the wild card for both yield and quality, and is a major determinant of market direction during Q2 2026.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• India and Vietnam lead as top exporters, with India slightly reducing its FOB price offers amid market competition.
• The US remains a consistent exporter to premium and western hemisphere markets, but relies on stable planting progress for maintaining its future share.
• Global inventories are adequate but not burdensome, with a tighter supply balance if weather disrupts Asia’s next main crop.

📆 Trading Outlook & Short-Term Forecast

• Futures sentiment is stable to bullish for early 2026, with the May contract likely to draw heightened volatility around USDA and sowing updates.
• Physical buyers may find value in recent spot offer declines, but should remain alert to weather risks and possible supply chain shocks.
• Producers and exporters are advised to hedge forward sales for May-July as price risk is skewed upward by lingering weather uncertainty.
• Monitor CBOT volume and open interest daily for cues on potential reversals or fund-driven rallies.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT)

Date	Reference Contract	Expected Range (USD/cwt)	Bias
2026-02-24	Mar 26	9.85 – 9.95	Stable/Firm
2026-02-25	May 26	10.25 – 10.38	Modestly Bullish
2026-02-26	May 26	10.22 – 10.35	Stable