Rice Market Update: Bearish Bias as Prices Ease on Ample Asian Supply and Weak Demand

The global rice market is navigating a period of softening prices, shaped by abundant Asian supplies, moderate export demand, and a notably steady monsoon forecast for the key producing regions of India and Southeast Asia. At the same time, futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have been easing gently, signalling a slight bearish sentiment as fresh supplies enter the market and stock levels remain comfortable among major exporters. Indian FOB offers—especially for sella and steam rice—continue to lead global shipment volumes at competitive prices, while Vietnam’s stable quotations offer support to overall market equilibrium. Looking ahead, a combination of ample inventories and generally favourable weather reduces the risk of supply disruptions and maintains a wait-and-see mood among traders.

However, market participants are closely monitoring the pace of Indian government procurement and evolving El Niño/La Niña patterns that might shape supply in the second half of 2025. In this environment, buyers are cautious but opportunistic, seeking pricing dips for strategic coverage, while sellers focus on offloading older crop stocks. The overall mood remains one of stability but with a mild downside tilt, subject to changes in Asian crop weather or shifts in government policies.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Origin	Type	Latest Price	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
CBOT Jul 25	Rough Rice	13.59	13.67	-0.59%	US-Cent/cwt	Bearish
CBOT Sep 25	Rough Rice	13.69	13.77	-0.58%	US-Cent/cwt	Bearish
IN-FOB New Delhi	all golden, sella	1.06	1.07	-0.94%	USD/kg	Softening
IN-FOB New Delhi	all steam, pr11	0.55	0.56	-1.79%	USD/kg	Softening
VN-FOB Hanoi	long, white, 5%	0.60	0.60	0.00%	USD/kg	Stable
VN-FOB Hanoi	Jasmine	0.62	0.62	0.00%	USD/kg	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: India remains the world’s top rice exporter, maintaining high pipeline stocks and fresh arrivals as the rabi harvest concludes. Vietnam’s supplies are ample, pressuring other origins to compete on price.
• Demand: Global demand is moderate as buyers wait for potential further declines. Middle Eastern and African importers show sporadic activity, while Asian importers remain well covered.
• Policy: No major policy changes from Indian, Vietnamese, or Thai governments; moderate export controls remain in India but with room for exceptions.
• Inventories: Global ending stocks for 2025 are forecast to be stable to slightly higher, with India and China holding the largest reserves.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Global rice production for 2024/25 is projected at 522 million metric tons, with consumption at 517 million. World stocks are forecast around 170 million tons, signalling a stocks-to-use ratio of roughly 33%—ample by historical standards.
• Crop Acreages: India’s kharif planting is on track, supported by timely monsoon onset and above-average soil moisture. Vietnam’s summer–autumn crop progresses normally; Thailand’s main crop area is steady year-on-year.
• Speculative Activity: Managed money funds trim long positions on CBOT rice as physical market weakness persists.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: IMD forecasts a normal-to-above-normal monsoon, crucial for summer rice planting; so far, rainfall is timely in core producing states (West Bengal, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh).
• Vietnam & Thailand: Favourable conditions—adequate rains and mild temperatures. Flood risks are currently low; irrigation reservoirs are full after recent storms.
• US: Southern US rice belt sees average rainfall. No major flooding or drought stress expected near-term. Crop development is slightly ahead of average.

🌏 Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (MMT)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (MMT)
India	132	42
China	148	56
Vietnam	28	5
Thailand	21	6
US	7	1.6
Other	186	50

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔹 Market bias is mildly bearish as ample Asian supply meets unaggressive import demand.
• 🔹 Buyers should consider coverage on price dips, especially if Indian policy shifts or weather conditions worsen.
• 🔹 Sellers advised to prioritise inventory movement, as further downside cannot be ruled out in the near term.
• 🔹 Watch the Indian monsoon and export policy updates; any disruption here could spark renewed upside volatility.
• 🔹 Monitor speculative flows on CBOT for short-term price cues.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Origin	Expected Price Range	Sentiment
CBOT (Jul 25)	13.50 – 13.70 US-Cent/cwt	Cautiously Lower
IN-FOB New Delhi (sella/steam)	0.55 – 1.06 USD/kg	Soft/Sideways
VN-FOB Hanoi (white, Jasmine)	0.60 – 0.62 USD/kg	Stable