Sunflower Oil Market 2025/26: Firm Prices Despite Softer Volumes

Ukraine’s sunflower complex is capturing significantly higher export revenues in 2025/26 despite softer physical volumes, signalling a firm global price environment underpinned by resilient demand from India and key EU buyers.

Underlying seed and kernel prices in the Black Sea are broadly stable in April, while sunflower oil values remain supported by the strong vegetable oil and energy complex. Logistics constraints and competition with rapeseed and soy are reshaping trade flows, but Ukraine retains its role as a pivotal supplier of sunflower oil to India and Europe.

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📈 Prices & Market Structure

Recent trade data show Ukraine’s total vegetable oil exports at USD 4.94 billion in July–March 2025/26, up 21.1% year-on-year, even as aggregate oil shipments slipped 1.6% to around 4 million tonnes. Sunflower oil remains the backbone, with more than 3.16 million tonnes shipped and close to USD 4 billion in value, despite a 10.1% drop in volume. This divergence between value and tonnage underscores a firm, price‑driven market rather than a volume‑led one.

Physical sunflower seed prices in the Black Sea confirm this firmness with a sideways bias. Export offers for Ukrainian black sunflower seeds in early April are clustered around EUR 0.66/kg FCA Kyiv/Odesa and about EUR 0.58/kg FOB Odesa for seeds and meal, showing little week‑on‑week movement and indicating a stable spot market.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine are increasingly concentrated on a few large importers. India leads with roughly 484,000 tonnes in the period, reflecting its structural dependence on imported edible oils. Major EU buyers include Spain (about 446,000 tonnes), the Netherlands (394,000 tonnes), Italy (305,000 tonnes) and France (185,000 tonnes), giving Ukraine a diversified—but Europe‑centric—demand base. Additional flows to Egypt and Iraq further broaden the outlet mix.

Rapeseed and soybean oils are gaining weight in Ukraine’s export basket. Rapeseed oil shipments have expanded 2.3‑fold in volume and 2.8‑fold in value, driven largely by European demand for alternative oils. Soybean oil exports have reached around 380,000 tonnes, worth about USD 421 million, with Poland and other EU markets absorbing the bulk. This diversification mitigates risk for crushers while maintaining sunflower oil as the anchor product.

On the destination side, Europe faces ample oilseed availability, with record rapeseed output and solid sunflower supplies keeping overall imports contained, though strong crush and biodiesel demand maintain oilseed prices at relatively firm levels. In parallel, European and Indian buyers have seen sunflower oil import prices under upward pressure as Black Sea supply remains constrained by logistics and security risks.

📊 Fundamentals & Price Drivers

The key fundamental feature of the current sunflower market is the decoupling of value from volume in Ukraine’s export statistics. Higher global prices more than offset lower shipped tonnages, particularly in sunflower oil, reflecting tight effective exportable supply rather than a bumper crop environment. Limited port and processing capacity, risk premia on Black Sea logistics, and strong competition for raw seeds from domestic crushers all contribute to this price resilience.

In Europe, the vegetable oil complex is supported by relatively expensive energy and overall firmness across seed and oil markets. Benchmark sunflower oil FOB northwest Europe is quoted just above EUR 950/t equivalent (converted from recent USD indications), only slightly below rapeseed oil values, highlighting its competitive but not discounted status. At the same time, processed sunflower kernels in Europe command a clear premium over bulk seed, with bakery and confection grades trading substantially above whole seed values due to tight high‑quality kernel supply.

Domestically in Ukraine, March market reports point to modest price corrections in crude sunflower oil and by‑products, but from elevated levels, keeping processor margins viable. The abolition of export duties on sunflower seeds to the EU since 1 January 2026 has heightened competition between exporters and crushers for raw material, adding support to farm‑gate seed prices and indirectly underpinning oil export values.

🌦️ Weather & Production Outlook

Weather conditions in the wider Black Sea region are moderately supportive for 2026/27 sunflower production. Seasonal outlooks indicate above‑average rainfall in parts of northern and southern Ukraine and the southeast of Russia for April–June 2026, which should benefit soil moisture for oilseed sowing and early crop development. While localized excess rainfall could disrupt fieldwork, current projections do not point to a widespread production shock.

Looking into 2026/27, sunflower remains economically attractive in Ukrainian crop rotations, with high relative prices encouraging farmers to maintain or marginally expand planted area. Recent analytical work suggests crush volumes could rise further as export licensing rules continue to favour value‑added oil and meal shipments over raw seed exports, reinforcing Ukraine’s role as a processed sunflower oil supplier to India and the EU.

📉 Current Indicative Prices (EUR)

Product	Origin	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Change (EUR/kg)
Sunflower seeds, black	Ukraine	FCA Kyiv/Odesa	0.66	+0.01 to +0.03 over late March
Sunflower seeds, black	Ukraine	FOB Odesa	0.58	Flat over recent weeks
Sunflower kernels, hulled bakery	Ukraine	FCA Dnipro	0.96	Stable
Sunflower kernels, hulled bakery	Bulgaria	FCA Berlin	1.07	-0.02 vs mid‑March
Sunflower seeds, black with stripe	China	FOB Beijing	1.44	-0.02 vs early April

Note: All prices converted to and shown in EUR/kg. Where necessary, USD‑denominated benchmarks were converted at prevailing market FX rates for context.

📆 Short- and Medium-Term Outlook

Short term (next 1–3 months): Export values for Ukrainian sunflower oil are likely to remain firm. The combination of steady demand from India and the EU, persistent logistical risks in the Black Sea, and broadly supportive energy prices should continue to underpin FOB oil and seed levels. Sideways‑to‑slightly‑firmer pricing is expected for seeds and kernels, with only limited downside unless a significant improvement in logistics or unexpected demand slowdown materializes.

Medium term (2026/27): Market balance will hinge on Black Sea crop performance and crushing capacity. If favourable weather translates into good yields, volume recovery could ease price tensions, but expanding crush and policy incentives to export oil and meal rather than seeds will keep the sunflower oil trade central. Concurrent growth in rapeseed and soybean oil exports from Ukraine suggests a broader vegetable oil offer, yet sunflower is set to remain the core revenue driver.

🧭 Trading & Risk Management Suggestions

• Importers (India, EU): Consider layering in purchases for Q2–Q3 at current levels, as export values are supported by structural factors and weather‑related downside appears limited in the near term.
• Crushers in Ukraine: Use the present firmness in export oil values to secure forward sales while maintaining flexibility on seed procurement, given the competition with exporters for raw sunflower.
• Kernel buyers (bakery/confection): Premium kernel prices over seeds argue for early coverage of high‑spec volumes; spot tightening is likely if export logistics tighten or if seed availability falls late in the season.
• Producers: With sunflower maintaining a favourable price ratio versus alternative crops, maintaining or slightly increasing acreage appears justified, but hedging part of expected production is prudent in case of a strong global oilseed harvest.

📍 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Black Sea (Ukraine, FOB/Odesa): Sunflower seed and meal prices expected broadly sideways, with a slight upward bias if export demand from India/EU remains active.
• EU (CIF main ports): Sunflower oil values likely to trade steady to marginally firmer, reflecting a firm vegetable oil complex and ongoing Black Sea risk premia.
• Asia (CIF India): Import prices for sunflower oil projected to stay firm, supported by India’s strong structural demand and its role as the largest buyer of Ukrainian sunflower oil.

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