Optimistic Outlook for Global Supply
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently adjusted its forecast for global soybean supply slightly downward. Despite this revision, the Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP), an organization established by the German Farmers’ Association, anticipates a record global soybean harvest for the 2024/2025 season.
Expected Increase in Production
According to UFOP, the USDA remains optimistic about global soybean supply in the 2024/25 season. They project an increase in production by 26.4 million tons from the previous year, reaching 421.6 million tons. This would result in the largest global soybean harvest ever. The International Grains Council (IGC) also forecasts a substantial harvest, though their estimate is slightly lower at 415.1 million tons.
Regional Production Insights
Both the USDA and IGC agree that higher production is likely in Brazil and the United States. The variance between their estimates is mainly due to differing projections for Brazil’s output. The IGC forecasts a 2025 harvest of 161.5 million tons, while U.S. officials predict just under 169 million tons. Although these predictions are still uncertain, as the 2024 harvest was recently completed and planting for the 2025 crop will not start for another two months, both organizations anticipate an expansion in Brazil’s planting areas. This is driven by strong domestic and international demand from the biofuel sector.
Minimal Adjustments in Consumption Estimates
The USDA has made only minor adjustments compared to the previous month. Consumption for the 2024/25 season is now estimated at 401.5 million tons, nearly unchanged from the prior month’s forecast. This represents an increase of 19 million tons from the previous year.
Increasing Soybean Popularity
Soybeans’ appeal in crop rotation is expected to grow, partly due to competitive producer prices compared to other crops. The USDA still forecasts that global stocks will rise by 16.5 million tons to 127.8 million tons by the end of the 2024/25 season, significantly above the long-term average of 99.6 million tons.
The projections for a record global soybean harvest in the 2024/2025 season highlight the crop’s growing importance in global agriculture, particularly in light of rising demand from the biofuel industry. As Brazil and the U.S. lead production increases, the market will closely watch these developments. The anticipated rise in global stocks also suggests a buffer against potential supply disruptions, ensuring stability in the soybean market. These trends underscore the need for strategic planning and investment in sustainable agricultural practices to support this crucial sector.