Ukraine’s Oat Market Faces Tight Supply, Robust Exports, and Global Headwinds

The Ukrainian oat market in the 2025/26 marketing year reveals a dynamic and complex environment shaped by both domestic and global forces. Despite a notable decrease in production—driven principally by a reduction in sown areas, with total output estimated at around 360 thousand tons—the market is witnessing intensified external demand. This paradox is reshaping price formation and market sentiment. While the reduced harvest makes each ton more valuable for Ukrainian sellers, they must navigate a world market where oat production has expanded to 24.9 million tons and global ending stocks are at record levels. This international abundance is capping price growth and fostering stiff competition among exporters. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s exports are showing remarkable strength: in the first half of the season alone, the country shipped about 40 thousand tons of oats, achieving a decade-high pace. The internal balance of the market, therefore, pivots significantly on strong export activity, as domestic supply constraints contrast with buoyant foreign appetite.

📈 Market Prices

Origin	Exchange/Location	Specification	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Ukraine (UA)	Odesa	Feed, 98% purity	FCA	0.24	0.24	0%	Stable, export-driven

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: Production down, harvest estimated at ~360,000 tons due to reduced sown area. Export activity critical to market balance.
• Global: Production up to 24.9 million tons, with record-high ending stocks enhancing competition and capping price growth.
• Exports: Ukraine shipped 40,000 tons in first half of season—highest in 10 years.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Domestic trends: Reduced availability increases the value perception of Ukrainian oats. Exporters may find support from limited supply but challenged by international glut.
• Global competitive pressure: International market faces record stocks, which suppresses overall price elevations and encourages aggressive offers worldwide.
• Speculation and inventory: Weak speculative interest evident due to ample stocks, reinforcing resistance to significant price rallies.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• Ukraine: Most recent planting season faced typical spring conditions; no abnormal drought/frost reported. However, persistent monitoring needed as tighter acreage raises climate sensitivity.
• Global: Favorable yields in main exporters (Canada, EU) underlined record production. Upcoming weather trends in key growing regions will dictate the next harvest’s outlook.

🌐 Global Production and Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	2025/26 Production (1000 t)	Ending Stocks (1000 t)
Ukraine	360	N/A
World	24,900	Record high

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⏫ Bullish: For Ukrainian sellers, tight domestic supply and robust export flows may offer limited price support locally.
• ⏬ Bearish: Global oversupply and high stocks constrain upside for international oat prices; exporters should brace for heavy competition.
• 🤝 Strategy: Consider forward contracting to mitigate potential downswings as new global supply enters the market.
• 🌤️ Monitor: Keep close watch on summer weather, as yield volatility could quickly shift the tight balance in Ukraine.
• 📦 Storage: For domestic players, storing oats may provide value if export momentum persists and local stocks diminish further.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FCA Odesa, Ukraine)

• Day 1: EUR 0.24/kg – Stable, supported by export activity
• Day 2: EUR 0.24/kg – No significant movement anticipated
• Day 3: EUR 0.24/kg – Weather and logistics developments could prompt spot adjustment, but trend steady