📜 Wheat Futures Rebound Slightly – Weak Euro and Hopes for French Exports Provide Support 📜

Wheat futures ended higher on Friday for most contracts, with later-dated Euronext futures and U.S. prices showing modest gains. However, ongoing favourable weather and weak international demand continued to limit upside momentum as traders monitor export rumours and global supply developments.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 Weekly Change
Euronext Sep 2025	€209.75/t	+€1.75	–€2.75 (–1.3%)
CBOT Jul 2025	545.00 ct/bu (€176/t)	+0.50 ct	–17.50 ct (–3.1%)

📌 Euronext posted moderate gains, while CBOT remained mixed with a small daily uptick.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📈 Euronext Supported by Weaker Euro and Technical Buying

📊 Factors at play:

• The euro slipped, aiding Euronext’s competitiveness
• Technical buying emerged after prices hit multi-year lows
• Rumours of French wheat sales to Egypt boosted sentiment (no official confirmation yet)

📌 Weaker currency and bargain hunting helped stabilise European wheat.

🔹 📉 Improved Global Crop Outlook Caps Gains

📊 Weather conditions continue to improve:

• Rainfall across the U.S. southern Plains and southern Russia
• Moisture improvements in Central and Northern Europe

📌 Better weather forecasts continue to suppress sustained rallies.

🔹 📉 France Crop Ratings Slightly Weaken

📊 FranceAgriMer data:

• Soft wheat rated 74% good/excellent, down 1 pp from last week
• Still well above last year’s 63%
• Dryness in Northern France raises concerns despite recent rains

📌 Conditions remain favourable but fragile.

🔹 📊 Export Demand Faces Challenges

📊 Tender updates:

• Syria cancelled a 100,000 t wheat tender amid financing difficulties
• Iraq reportedly donating 220,000 tons of wheat to Syria (“gift to Syrian people”)
• Black Sea origins remain more competitive, with:
  • 🇺🇦 Ukrainian wheat (11.5% protein): $239–242/t (€211–214/t)
  • 🇺🇸 U.S. SRW (Gulf): $228–232/t (€201–205/t)

📌 EU wheat faces tough competition at current price levels.

🔹 📉 CFTC Fund Positioning

📊 As of April 22:

• CBOT wheat net shorts down 6,510 contracts to 89,929 contracts
• Kansas City wheat net shorts up 9,252 contracts to 56,624 contracts

📌 Speculators continue to hold large net short positions, but the liquidation pace slowed.

🔹 📊 Geopolitical Developments: India-Pakistan Water Dispute

📊 India suspended the Indus Water Treaty following a terrorist attack:

• Could impact Pakistan’s wheat irrigation long-term
• Pakistan remains mostly self-sufficient in wheat (~30 million tons/year)

📌 No immediate impact on trade, but potential for regional tensions ahead.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 29–May 1, 2025)

📅 Contract	🔮 Expected Range
Euronext Sep 2025	€207 – €212/t
CBOT Jul 2025	542 – 550 ct/bu (€175 – €178/t)

📌 Continued weather improvement and weak demand may limit upside.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA – Plains

📍 Current: Moisture levels improving
📆 Forecast:

• 🌧️ Additional rain is expected across the winter wheat belt
• 🌡️ Seasonal temperatures are supportive for crop development

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine – Black Sea Region

📍 Current: Soil moisture improving
📆 Forecast:

• 🌧️ Frequent rains in southern Russia and Ukraine
• 🌡️ Mild spring conditions

🇪🇺 Europe – France, Germany, Poland

📍 Current: Soil moisture improving, but risks persist in Northern Germany and Poland
📆 Forecast:

• 🌧️ Patchy rain continues
• 🌡️ Overall, good conditions are expected for crop development

📌 Weather continues to improve, easing supply concerns.

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📉 5. Market Data Highlights

📍 Market	📉 Net Short Position	🔄 Weekly Change
CBOT Wheat	89,929 contracts	–6,510
KC Wheat	56,624 contracts	+9,252

🌍 Export Prices (FOB)	USD/t	EUR/t
🇺🇸 U.S. SRW (Gulf)	228–232	201–205
🇺🇦 Ukrainian (11.5% protein)	239–242	211–214

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Euronext wheat rebounds slightly on weaker euro and technical buying
✅ Crop conditions remain favourable across key global regions
✅ Export competition remains fierce, limiting potential rallies
✅ Speculative fund positioning remains heavily net short

📌 Recommendations:
🔹 Producers: Stay cautious – further rebounds could offer selling opportunities
🔹 Buyers: Take advantage of any dips for forward booking
🔹 Traders: Monitor rainfall patterns and export sales rumours closely

📍 Weather, fund positioning, and competitiveness will shape wheat price direction into early May.