Wheat Market Faces Subdued Volatility: Key Price Moves & Outlook

The wheat market is currently presenting a relatively contained volatility environment, as indicated by the most recent trading activity across major exchanges and contracts. Market sentiment shows mild positive price momentum for both CBoT and Euronext futures, with moderate gains visible across 2026 and 2027 contracts. Despite these incremental price upticks, trading volumes remain seasonal, and open interest levels suggest steady participation rather than speculative fervor. On ICE, feed wheat contracts in the UK experienced minimal movement, reinforcing the pattern of calm markets observed globally. This report offers a comprehensive deep dive based on the absolute latest official exchange data, placing the Raw Text snapshot at the core of our market analysis. Supplementary data drawn from product offers in EUR and weather forecasts provide context—but do not override—the narrative established by exchange data.

📈 Prices: Current Exchange Overview

Exchange	Contract (Month/Year)	Last Close	Change	% Change	Market Sentiment
CBoT	Mar 26	550.75 US-Cent/bu	+3.75	+0.69%	Positive
CBoT	May 26	556.25 US-Cent/bu	+3.75	+0.68%	Positive
CBoT	Jul 26	563.00 US-Cent/bu	+3.25	+0.58%	Positive
CBoT	Sep 26	574.25 US-Cent/bu	+3.00	+0.53%	Positive
CBoT	Dec 26	591.75 US-Cent/bu	+2.75	+0.47%	Positive
Euronext	Mar 26	190.75 EUR/t	0.00	0.00%	Stable
Euronext	May 26	191.25 EUR/t	0.00	0.00%	Stable
ICE (Feed)	Mar 26	162.70 GBP/t	+0.10	+0.06%	Very Weak Positive

Note: Volume and open interest figures indicate normal market activity reflective of a balanced supply-demand scenario.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports & Stock Levels: No dramatic inventory changes reported recently; global inventories remain adequate, supporting moderate price action.
• Crop Acreage: Sowing areas stable, with no major shocks in recent acreage forecasts.
• Speculative Positioning: Open interest at CBoT and Euronext remains steady, suggesting limited new speculative money entering wheat at this time.
• Fundamentals Unchanged: Grain flows and logistics are in line with seasonal averages. No evidence of major export restrictions or supply chain disruptions.

📊 Fundamentals: Key Figures and Market Table

Region	Offer Type	Protein (%)	Price (EUR/kg)	Origin	Term	Updated
US (CBOT)	Wheat	11.5	0.21	US	FOB	2026-02-13
France	Wheat	11.0	0.29	FR	FOB	2026-02-13
Ukraine	Wheat	11.0	0.18	UA	FOB	2026-02-13
Ukraine	Wheat	12.5	0.20	UA	FOB	2026-02-13

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Main Producers

• US Midwest: Weather mostly within seasonal norms; some patchy precipitation may marginally affect fieldwork, but yield impact assessed as negligible for now.
• EU (France, Germany): Temperatures stable, adequate rainfall continues. Soil moisture in positive range.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Mild forecast, moderate precipitation. Generally favorable for upcoming planting and crop development.

Weather remains a watch-point but with limited immediate effect on current yields or prices as per available data.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks: Comparative Summary

• Top Exporters: The US, EU, Russia, and Ukraine maintain robust export capabilities, with no major signals of disruption or constraint in logistical flows.
• Major Importers: North Africa, Middle East, and Asia continue regular procurement; no panic buying reported, contributing to market stability.
• Stocks/Usage Ratio: Global ratio remains in the comfortable zone, alleviating upward pricing pressure.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy Suggestions

• Expect continued sideways to mildly positive price action in the short term as fundamentals remain steady.
• Monitor weather anomalies in major producing regions for early signs of stress.
• Watch USDA and other official releases for any revision in supply-demand balance.
• Physical players may find FOB/FCA offers in Ukraine and the US slightly more attractive amid thin volatility.
• Speculators: Short-term, market lacks momentum; position with close stops if seeking to trade volatility spikes.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Range	Sentiment
CBoT	Mar 26	548 – 553 US-Cent/bu	Stable to Mildly Positive
Euronext	Mar 26	190 – 192 EUR/t	Stable
ICE	Mar 26	162 – 164 GBP/t	Stable

All forecasts conditioned by priority Raw Text data and may be revised in response to fresh official supply/demand inputs.