Wheat Market Hits 2.5-Year Low as Global Weather and Black Sea Competition Pressure Prices

The global wheat market has entered a phase of pronounced weakness, with benchmark futures on both Euronext and CBOT tumbling to multi-year lows. Euronext September wheat fell to €201.25/t, its lowest point in over two years, marking the fourth consecutive daily decline.

Weak export demand and favourable weather across major producing regions—including the U.S., EU, Ukraine, China, and India—have combined to erode market sentiment. Meanwhile, U.S. CBOT July wheat briefly dipped to $171/t before a modest recovery. The market faces persistent headwinds: Black Sea wheat remains highly competitive, with Russian FOB offers undercutting French wheat by around $10/t, and EU wheat exports are sharply down year-on-year.

While recent rainfall has improved yield prospects, the first U.S. spring wheat condition ratings fell short of expectations, underscoring ongoing production risks. Against this backdrop, futures may remain under pressure, especially in Paris, where prices threaten to slip below the psychological €200/t threshold. For producers, traders, and end-users, the coming weeks will test the resilience of price floors in the face of ample global supply and aggressive competition from the Black Sea region.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Origin	Contract/Type	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext (Paris)	Sep 2025	€201.25/t	-€4.25	Bearish
CBOT (Chicago)	Jul 2025	533.75 ct/bu ($171/t)	-14 ct/bu	Bearish
FOB Russia	11.5% protein, Jul	$223–226/t	n/a	Bearish
Ukraine (Kyiv, Odesa)	FCA, 11.5% protein	€0.25–0.26/kg	+€0.01	Neutral
France (FOB Paris)	11.0% protein	€0.27/kg	Unchanged	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Recent rainfall has improved yield prospects across the U.S., EU, Ukraine, China, and India.
• USDA reports drought-affected U.S. spring wheat area has dropped to 29% (from 38% last week).
• U.S. spring wheat rated only 45% good/excellent, well below the 71% expected by analysts.
• EU wheat exports for 2024/25 reached 18.81 Mt (–34% YoY), with German exports at 2.441 Mt.
• Russian wheat offers remain highly competitive, undercutting French wheat by ~$10/t.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global wheat inventories remain comfortable, with ample supplies from the Black Sea region.
• Speculative positioning is net short on major exchanges, reflecting continued bearish sentiment.
• Export competition is intense, particularly from Russia and Ukraine, keeping Western European and U.S. prices under pressure.
• EU and U.S. export programs lag behind previous years, further weighing on prices.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• U.S. Plains & Midwest: Continued rainfall expected, improving soil moisture and yield prospects.
• EU (France, Germany, Poland): Mixed weather with scattered showers; largely favourable for crop development.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Moderate temperatures and scattered rains; no major threats to harvest.
• Asia (China, India): Seasonal monsoon rains are progressing normally, supporting crop growth.

Overall, the weather outlook remains non-threatening, supporting the bearish trend in futures.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	YoY Change
European Union	130	12.5	-3%
Russia	89	16.0	+2%
Ukraine	22	2.0	+5%
United States	51	16.5	-1%
China	137	120.0	Unchanged
India	110	8.0	Unchanged

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term bias remains bearish as ample supply and weak demand continue to weigh on prices.
• Paris wheat is likely to test support below €200/t barring a weather shock or export surge.
• Monitor Black Sea export offers—further price cuts from Russia/Ukraine could pressure global benchmarks.
• End-users should consider locking in forward coverage as prices approach multi-year lows.
• Producers may delay sales, awaiting a potential weather-driven rebound, but should manage downside risk.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Euronext (Paris)	€201.25/t	€198–202/t	Sideways/Lower
CBOT (Chicago)	533.75 ct/bu ($171/t)	525–535 ct/bu ($168–172/t)	Sideways
FOB Russia	$223–226/t	$220–225/t	Lower