Wheat Market in Focus: Stability Meets Uncertainty Across Global Exchanges

While the wheat market enters late February 2026 largely unchanged across major exchanges, the underlying tone is one of cautious stability amid a host of crosscurrents. On Europe’s MATIF (Euronext), wheat futures saw virtually no movement, with notable contract months like March, May, and September 2026 closing flat at EUR 195.25/t, EUR 197.25/t, and EUR 201/t respectively. Across the Atlantic, the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) mirrored the steady sentiment, with March 2026 wheat down just 0.04% and deep liquidity continuing through major contracts. ICE Feed Wheat in the UK experienced similarly minor adjustments, with a slight negative drift in nearby months.

Behind the apparent calm, traders and market participants weigh the prospects of steady global supply against potential external shocks. Sustained open interest and moderate volumes point to continued engagement from commercial interests and financial players. Furthermore, global wheat offers remain steady across key origins such as France, the US, and Ukraine, underscoring a marketplace where short-term price action gives little away about the longer-term outlook. Amid this, eyes remain fixed on weather developments, seeding intentions, and any cues from official forecasts that could tip the balance. For now, the wheat market is a study in patience and positioning, with stability at the surface and latent tension beneath.

📈 Prices: Wheat Futures Snapshot

Exchange/Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext MATIF Mar 26	195.25	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext MATIF May 26	197.25	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext MATIF Sep 26	201.00	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
CBOT Mar 26	567.25	-0.04%	US-Cent/bu	Stable/Soft
CBOT May 26	571.25	-0.35%	US-Cent/bu	Slightly Bearish
ICE Feed Wheat Mar 26	165.00	-0.39%	GBP/t	Slightly Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Volume & Open Interest: Strong open interest persists across MATIF and CBOT, pointing to ongoing hedging and commercial activity.
• Global Offers: No major movement in spot or FOB offers for French, US, or Ukrainian wheat, reflecting stable international trade flows.
• Speculative Positioning: Volume remains substantive (e.g., 255,832 open interest on MATIF May 26), reflecting a balanced market with limited risk-taking.
• Inventory Context: No clear reduction in end-of-season stocks signaled, suggesting that supply chains remain adequately provisioned.

📊 Fundamentals Overview

• • Wheat Prices by Origin (as offers, indicative):

Origin	Protein	FOB/FCA Price	Currency
France (Paris FOB)	min. 11.00%	0.29	EUR/kg
USA (CBOT FOB)	min. 11.50%	0.21	EUR/kg
Ukraine (Odesa FCA, 11.50%)	min. 11.50%	0.25	EUR/kg

• International Market Tone: Offers in the physical market complement stability in futures, reinforcing the sense of adequate supply and cautious demand.
• Trade Flow: No abrupt changes reported in major wheat exporting pathways (EU, Black Sea, US); logistics seem supportive for the near term.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• EU & Black Sea: Weather conditions are seasonally normal; forecasts show no significant drought or freeze threats that could impact the near-term outlook.
• US Plains: Mixed precipitation across key US wheat areas, with soil moisture currently sufficient for winter wheat development—weather remains a risk if dry trends emerge.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• Major Exporters: EU, Russia, US, and Australia stable—inventories remain within normal performance bands. No major disruptions reported.
• Importers: North Africa, Middle East demand remains steady but with sufficient forward purchases, reducing upside risk in prices.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• • Wait-and-see approach encouraged, as both futures and physical prices consolidate.
• • Hedging strategies should remain in place—volatility spikes possible with new weather or political developments.
• • End-users can maintain normal cover, as no major tightness is currently evident.
• • Short-term speculators should monitor weather risks, especially in the Black Sea and US Plains.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Euronext MATIF (Mar 26): EUR 194.5–196.5/t (flat/sideways)
• CBOT (Mar 26): 565–570 US-Cent/bu (neutral)
• ICE Feed Wheat Mar 26: GBP 164–166/t (sideways/weak bias)