Wheat Market Nears Six-Month High: Prices Hold, But EU Stocks Loom Large

The wheat market continues to draw attention as prices hover near six-month highs. After strong rallies late last week, the market took a pause on Monday as profit-taking weighed on futures, resulting in a slight dip by closing. Physical cash markets also edged higher, albeit less dramatically than futures exchanges. Market participants—especially those with considerable old-crop stocks—are advised to seize current opportunities: it’s recommended to have at least 70% of marketing completed, suggesting that while further price gains are possible if weather issues arise ahead of the new harvest, the upside may be capped by robust supplies and swelling stocks in the EU. The Euronext wheat market grappled with both a stronger euro and uncertainty regarding US trade policy, though overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, hinting at the possibility that wheat might settle at an elevated price level for the medium term.

French weather conditions have recently improved following heavy rains, reducing concerns about crop damage and actually enhancing medium-term growth prospects due to improved soil moisture. On the export front, attention is fixed on Algeria’s latest tender, with expectations of multiple hundred thousand tonnes being sourced—likely from Black Sea origins, while French wheat, hamstrung by diplomatic tensions, is expected to lose out. In the US, robust export inspection data support a bullish undertone, with the latest numbers up sharply from both the prior week and last year. End users and traders await further signals from upcoming Algerian deals and USDA export releases to calibrate their next moves. Overall, the wheat market sits at a pivotal juncture, with the potential for weather, policy, and export dynamics to tilt the balance in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

CBOT Wheat (US-Cent/bushel)

Contract	Last Close	Change	Sentiment
Mar 26	570.00 US-Cent/bu	+0.50	Profit-taking after rally, cautious optimism
May 26	575.25 US-Cent/bu	+1.50	Supportive export data
Jul 26	583.25 US-Cent/bu	+1.00	Steady momentum

Euronext (MATIF) Wheat (EUR/tonne)

Contract	Last Close	Change	Sentiment
Mar 26	196.00 EUR/t	0.00	Stable despite strong euro
May 26	197.75 EUR/t	0.00	Flat, awaiting export news
Sep 26	200.75 EUR/t	0.00	Calm after rally

ICE Feed Wheat (GBP/tonne)

Contract	Last Close	Change	Sentiment
Mar 26	165.65 GBP/t	+1.00	Modest gains, minor uptick
May 26	169.30 GBP/t	+1.00	Demand steady
Jul 26	172.65 GBP/t	+0.70	Gradual strengthening

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Futures saw profit-taking but cash market prices extended gains—advice: target 70% sales completion for old-crop stocks.
• EU ending stocks are on the rise, likely capping significant upward movement in cash prices.
• USDA export inspections were robust: 535,113 tonnes shipped last week (+42% vs prior week, +37% y/y), with 18.24 million tonnes YTD (+19%). Main destinations: Philippines, Nigeria, Bangladesh.
• French wheat expected to lose Algerian tender business to Black Sea sources, due to ongoing diplomatic rifts.

📊 Fundamentals

• Large EU supplies and high stocks overall remain the main bearish backdrop.
• Improved weather in France eases prior crop condition risks and boosts potential yields for the coming harvest.
• External influences: strong euro blunts some upward momentum in Paris futures; US trade policy uncertainty adds caution.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• France: Rain has ended, bringing soil back to ideal moisture; reduced fears over crop damage.
• Potential for favorable wheat growth conditions through spring—watch for any disruptive weather spikes.
• Globally: Weather stable, but with regional monitoring needed to identify risks in US, EU, and Black Sea belt before harvest.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• EU: Stocks are increasing, pressuring cash market; supply ample near term.
• Black Sea: Expected to secure new tenders, competitive supply outlook.
• US: YTD wheat exports up 19%—bullish for futures but offset by global supply expansion.

⚡ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers with old-crop stocks: Sell aggressively, targeting 70% sold before harvest risk window closes.
• End users: Consider staggered purchasing; further weather volatility could present short-term opportunities, but major price spikes unlikely unless significant crop issues emerge.
• Watch Algeria’s tender Wednesday—the result will shape short-term direction for global wheat trade flows.
• Monitor EU weather and US export reports for new momentum triggers; key resistance seen on cash market from rising EU stocks.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Current Level	Forecast Range	Bias
CBOT (US-Cent/bu)	580	575 – 585	Stable to slightly firmer, but capped
Euronext (EUR/t)	198	195 – 201	Stable, resistance from EU stocks
ICE Feed Wheat (GBP/t)	170	168 – 173	Upward drift possible, but limited