Wheat Market Update: Global Softness, Turkish Tenders, and Price Pressures

The international wheat market is adjusting to a period of price softness and cautious demand, set against a backdrop of busy tender activity and shifting global dynamics. This week, the most notable catalyst comes from Turkey, where the Turkish Grain Agency (TMA) has announced major international grain tenders: 175,000 tons of feed barley on March 13 and 280,000 tons of feed corn on March 16, with deliveries scheduled from late March to mid-April to several key Turkish ports. Although these tenders focus on barley and corn, they underscore Turkey’s prominent role as a grain importer, indicating robust feed demand that can ripple through the broader cereals complex, including wheat.

Wheat futures in Europe (MATIF) and the US (CBOT) have shown continued weakness, reflecting both ample near-term supply and restrained buying interest. The Euronext wheat May 2026 contract fell by 2.75 EUR to 207.00 EUR/t (-1.31% weekly), while CBOT’s May 2026 wheat eased marginally, down 0.50 cents to 602.75 USc/bu (-0.08%), signifying a mostly soft market sentiment. ICE Feed Wheat in the UK was somewhat firmer in the near months, but with only mild relief.

Market participants remain attentive to developments in Turkey and any alterations in global tenders, cargo flows, and inventory policies. The focus is also centered on fundamental drivers such as US and EU stock figures, as well as on spring planting and weather conditions in the Black Sea and North America, with the persistent softening in prices fueling a cautious trading approach.

📈 Prices: Latest Wheat Market Snapshot

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	May 2026	207.00 EUR/t	-2.75 (-1.31%)	Soft
CBOT	May 2026	602.75 USc/bu	-0.50 (-0.08%)	Neutral/Soft
ICE (UK)	May 2026	172.45 GBP/t	+0.85 (+0.49%)	Stable

Supplementary FOB Wheat Offer Prices (Selected)

Description	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)
Wheat, 11.00% protein	France	Paris	FOB	0.29
Wheat, 11.50% protein (CBOT)	US	Washington D.C	FOB	0.21
Wheat, 11.00% protein	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.18

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Turkish Tender Activity: TMA’s international tenders for barley and corn reinforce Turkey’s active role as a cereals importer. While these tenders do not directly affect wheat, a surge in Turkish grain demand can influence regional supply chains and shift attention to wheat fundamentals.
• Global Inventories: European and US wheat stocks remain at comfortable levels, a key factor maintaining market bearishness—reflected in slumping Euronext and stable CBOT prices.
• Speculative Positioning: Soft futures prices and minimal price recovery signs suggest money managers remain net short or unenthusiastic, further pressuring prices.
• Logistics & Trade Flows: Barley and corn import rules in Turkey favor imported and bonded stocks (not domestic), implying continued strong demand for global supply chains, which also supports international wheat trade flows.

📊 Fundamentals: Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2025E Wheat Output (mmt)	2025E Wheat Stocks (mmt)	Position in Trade
EU	125	18	Top Exporter
Russia	90	11	Lead Exporter
USA	49	17	Major Exporter
Turkey	18	2.3	Key Importer/Processor
China	136	140	Top Importer
India	108	11	Rising Importer

⛅ Weather Outlook for Key Wheat Regions

• Black Sea: Mild winter conditions so far, no major crop losses reported. Spring outlook crucial, especially with persistent dryness in southern Russia and Ukraine.
• US Midwest: Fair soil moisture, but concern over late cold snaps. Early spring sowing will be monitored.
• EU (France/Germany): Good subsoil moisture, planting on schedule. No major weather threats in the near term.
• Turkey: Conditions stable—higher imports are demand-driven, not supply-deficit related.

📌 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Monitor Turkish tender results: Strong barley and corn interest may hint at future wheat demand upticks regionally.
• With futures at multi-month lows, watch for bargain-buying opportunities—especially if weather risks escalate in the Black Sea spring.
• Consider short-term hedging for old crop positions; ample supply and weak technicals could prolong the bearish spell.
• Watch speculative positioning—any major fund reversals could spark brief rallies, but fundamentals still imply range-bound trade.
• Planting weather in Russia, Ukraine, and the US will set the next directional cue for Q2 2026.

📆 Regional Price Forecast: 3-Day Outlook

Exchange	Current Price	Forecast Range (3 days)	Trend
Euronext (MATIF) May 26	207.00 EUR/t	205–210 EUR/t	Sideways/Soft
CBOT May 26	602.75 USc/bu	595–610 USc/bu	Range-bound/Soft
ICE May 26	172.45 GBP/t	172–174 GBP/t	Stable

Summary: The wheat market remains marked by a soft tone, with Turkish feed grain tenders at the center of regional attention and global supply still ample. Hedgers should watch for signs of demand revival out of the tender results, but for now, the outlook is one of cautious range-trading.