Wheat Prices Stabilise on Fund Short-Covering – Algerian Purchase Adds Optimism

Wheat Prices Stabilise on Fund Short-Covering – Algerian Purchase Adds Optimism

Wheat futures steadied on both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday. Chicago gained modestly on fund short-covering, while Paris remained mostly unchanged. Algeria’s large wheat purchase briefly lifted market sentiment, though Black Sea origins are expected to dominate.

---

📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Weekly Trends

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price	📉 Change	📊 Trend
Euronext Sep 2025	€205.00/t	▲ €0.50	Sideways
CBOT Jul 2025	524.75 ct/bu (€173.00/t)	▲ 7.50 ct	Slight Rebound

---

🌍 2. Key Market Drivers

🔹 Fund Short-Covering Supports Prices

• Financial investors continued to cover short positions after prices hit fresh lows earlier this week.
• Sentiment was also supported by Algeria’s wheat purchase of ~660,000 t, though most will likely come from Black Sea origins.

🔹 FranceAgriMer Revises Export Outlook

• French soft wheat exports (non-EU): Raised to 3.2 Mio t (from 3.1 Mio t)
• EU shipments: 6.55 Mio t (+130,000 t vs April)
• Ending stocks revised down to 2.63 Mio t (previous: 2.81 Mio t)
• Still lowest export year since 1996/97

🔹 CBoT Recovers Slightly

• Soft and Hard Red Winter gained on short-covering, while Spring Wheat slipped due to favourable planting conditions

---

🚢 3. Export & Trade Developments

🌍 Algeria Buys Big, France Likely Sidelined

• Algeria’s OAIC purchased ~660,000 t in an international tender.
• Diplomatic tensions between Algeria and France may exclude French wheat despite attractive pricing.

🇪🇺 EU Exports Still Sluggish

• Total EU soft wheat exports 2024/25: 18.3 Mio t (▼33% YoY)
• Germany: 2.323 Mio t (+130,000 t Wow)
• Hope remains for demand from West Africa

---

🔬 4. Crop Conditions & Weather Update

🇺🇸 Kansas Wheat Tour – Day 2

• HRW yield estimate: 53.3 bu/ac (↑ from 42.4 bu/ac in 2024)
• 5-year average: 42.3 bu/ac
• Disease risk rising: Wheat Curl Mite & Mosaic Viruses

🌦️ Weather Snapshot

• USA: Rain forecast for SRW regions, but dryness persists in HRW belt
• EU: Mild & dry in Central Europe; showers in Western zones expected
• Black Sea: Recent rainfall is easing earlier drought concerns

---

📉 5. Speculative Positioning

Market	📊 Net Shorts	📈 Change (WoW)
Euronext Wheat (May 9)	253,905 contracts	▲ 14,082
CBOT Wheat (May 6)	113,734 contracts	▼ 7,681

---

🔮 6. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days)

Market	🔮 Forecast
Euronext Sep 2025	€202 – €206/t
CBOT Jul 2025	520 – 528 ct/bu

---

📌 7. Summary & Recommendations

📍 Key Points

• Short-covering activity helped stabilise prices
• Algerian tender adds optimism, though France may not benefit
• Kansas tour yields promising early results, but disease risk looms
• Export outlook for EU wheat remains bleak despite slight revisions

✅ Actionable Insight

• Sellers: Use small rebounds to hedge Q4 delivery
• Buyers: Monitor Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt tender results
• Traders: Prepare for potential volatility from USDA export data today