Recently, frosts in the Russian Federation and USDA forecast of a decrease in global ending stocks have caused a sharp increase in wheat prices. In its turn, it has increased the pressure on corn quotes. This has no fundamental support factors, as the harvest and stocks are expected to be quite high.
During the week, the purchase prices for corn in Ukraine increased by 5-6 USD/t to 170-175 USD/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. Thus, the increase in feed wheat prices was by 10-12 USD/t to 175-178 USD/t. Traders show active export demand in the period of seasonal supply reduction.
In 2023/24, Ukraine exported 24.07 million tons of corn (25.7 million tons last year). In particular, 1.17 million tons from May 1-13 (1.05 million tons for the same period in 2023). USDA experts raised the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 from 24.5 to 26 million tons. But lowered the forecast for the harvest in 2024/25 to 27 million tons (31 million tons in 2023/24). The forecast for exports in 2024/25 also reduced to 24 million tons.
As of May 15th, 2.84 million hectares or 71% of the planned area (58% last year) were sown with corn in Ukraine. Dry and warm weather should allow sowing to be completed at the optimal time.