🌾 Wheat Market Dynamics: Surging Procurement and Record Production Shape the Outlook 🌾

The wheat market is currently witnessing significant movements driven by governmental procurement strategies and record production forecasts. As of early May 2025, the Food Corporation of India’s procurement has surpassed last year’s figures, reaching 27.36 million tonnes. This increase is part of a broader strategy to enhance buffer stocks amidst a forecasted record production of 115.43 million tonnes for the 2024-25 crop year.

Last week’s statements from the Food Secretary highlighted an upward revision of procurement targets, particularly in Madhya Pradesh, reflecting a proactive approach to securing sufficient national reserves. However, this has led to a scarcity in Punjab, where private sector purchases have notably reduced government procurement. This scenario underscores the dynamic interplay between public and private sectors in the wheat market.

Market prices remain stable with slight variations across different regions and protein content levels. The strategic reserve adjustments and international trade conditions, particularly in Ukraine and France, continue to influence market sentiments and pricing structures.

📊 Market Overview

Location	Type	Price ($/t)	Previous Price ($/t)
Odesa, UA	Protein min. 11.50%	0.26	0.26
Kyiv, UA	Protein min. 9.50%	0.23	0.23
Paris, FR	Protein min. 11.00%	0.26	0.26

📈 Key Market Drivers

• Increased government procurement and revised targets.
• Record production forecasts influencing global supply expectations.
• Private sector activity impacting regional availability and pricing.

⛅ Weather Forecast – Impact on Harvest

The upcoming weather conditions in key wheat-growing regions like Punjab and Madhya Pradesh are expected to be predominantly dry, which may accelerate harvesting but could raise concerns about crop stress. In contrast, European regions anticipate mild weather, potentially benefiting crop conditions.

🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days

Given the stable supply and ongoing procurement, wheat prices are expected to remain relatively stable with potential minor fluctuations due to regional demand-supply dynamics.