72.5% of Guatemalan Exports to US Remain Tariff-Free After Supreme Court Ruling

🔵 Executive Summary

Following the recent US Supreme Court ruling reversing previously imposed emergency tariffs, 72.5% of Guatemala’s exports to the United States will continue entering duty-free, according to a technical assessment by Agexport.

The tariff-free portion represents USD 3,676.6 million in exports. The remaining 27.5%, valued at USD 1,392.4 million, will face a temporary additional 10% ad valorem tariff under a new Executive Order.

While the ruling restored much of Guatemala’s preferential access, a temporary 10% flat tariff remains in place for selected categories until July 24, 2026.

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📜 Executive Order Framework

Under Section 122 of the Executive Order published February 23:

• A flat 10% additional tariff applies to certain imports.

• Effective from 00:01 EST on February 24, 2026.

• Scheduled to remain in place until 00:01 EDT on July 24, 2026.

• Subject to defined exceptions.

The measure creates a mixed tariff landscape rather than a full rollback.

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📊 Sectoral Breakdown

✅ Sectors Maintaining 0% Tariff

• Traditional agriculture

• Apparel

• Textiles

These categories represent the majority of Guatemala’s export value to the US and remain protected under existing bilateral agreements.

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⚠️ Sectors Subject to 10% Tariff

Non-traditional agriculture exposure is particularly significant, potentially affecting niche and value-added exports.

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🌎 Context: Limited Structural Change

According to Agexport:

• 70.4% of Guatemala’s export supply was already tariff-free prior to the ruling.

• Existing bilateral trade agreements underpin much of the duty-free access.

Therefore, the Supreme Court decision introduces limited structural change but maintains short-term uncertainty for the remaining product categories.

A tariff-heading (HS code) level comparative analysis is underway to clarify exposure.

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🧭 Strategic Response & Recommendations

Agexport is:

• Participating in a technical committee with the Ministry of Economy (MINECO).

• Providing sector-specific evidence to advocate for full tariff elimination.

• Maintaining continuous monitoring of regulatory developments.

Exporters are advised to:

• Conduct margin stress-testing under multiple tariff scenarios.

• Review rules of origin and HS classifications.

• Include regulatory change clauses in contracts.

• Optimize logistics and cost structures.

• Maintain close communication with sectoral export bodies.

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🧭 CMB Market Interpretation

The current scenario reflects partial normalization rather than full tariff certainty.

Key Observations:

• Majority of exports remain protected under preferential frameworks.

• Temporary 10% tariff introduces manageable but real margin pressure.

• Non-traditional agricultural exports face competitive headwinds.

• Policy clarity remains time-bound until July 2026.

Short-Term Outlook:
Limited disruption for core agricultural exports.

Medium-Term Risk:
Extension or modification of the 10% tariff could affect planning cycles.

Strategic Implication:
Public–private coordination becomes central to safeguarding remaining tariff exposure.

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📊 Risk Assessment

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🏁 Conclusion

The US Supreme Court ruling preserves tariff-free access for the majority of Guatemalan exports, reinforcing the strength of existing bilateral trade frameworks.

However, the temporary 10% tariff affecting 27.5% of exports introduces selective pressure that requires careful scenario planning and coordinated policy engagement.

For now, Guatemala retains its position as a reliable US trade partner, but strategic vigilance remains essential through mid-2026.