Wheat under macro pressure as Russian exports surge and EU yields soften

Wheat markets are trading lower in sympathy with a sharp pullback in oil and a stronger euro, even as export demand from Russia and the US remains solid and early EU yield forecasts point to only mildly tighter fundamentals.

A de-escalation in the Persian Gulf conflict has triggered a 10% drop in crude oil prices and a weaker US dollar, pushing the euro to a two‑week high and weighing on European wheat. At the same time, Russia is accelerating shipments at steady FOB prices, while EU crop monitors flag slightly lower soft wheat yields than last year but still above average. US export inspections are running ahead of last season, confirming underlying demand despite the current risk‑off mood across commodities.

📈 Prices

European wheat futures on Euronext (MATIF) were unchanged on 24 March, with May 2026 trading around EUR 203/t, September 2026 at about EUR 211/t and December 2026 near EUR 218/t, all reflecting a flat curve on the day but a mild carry further out.

CBOT soft red winter wheat is weaker in early trading on 25 March, with May 2026 at 581 USc/bu (about EUR 198/t) and July 2026 at 592 USc/bu (about EUR 202/t), down roughly 1.5–1.7% versus the previous close. ICE feed wheat in London closed only marginally higher on 24 March, with May 2026 at GBP 172.50/t (around EUR 202/t) and November 2026 at GBP 181.90/t (around EUR 213/t), indicating relatively stable UK pricing.

Physical indications remain steady: recent offers show Ukrainian FCA wheat around EUR 220–250/t depending on protein and location, while French FOB wheat is quoted near EUR 290/t. US FOB wheat linked to CBOT remains more competitively priced at roughly EUR 210/t, underlining the strong competition among major exporters.

Market	Nearby contract / basis	Price (EUR/t)	Trend (d/d)
MATIF milling wheat	May 2026	≈ 203	Flat
CBOT SRW	May 2026	≈ 198	▼ about 1.5%
ICE feed wheat	May 2026	≈ 202	≈ Unchanged
Ukraine FCA (Kyiv/Odesa)	11.5% protein	≈ 240–250	Stable
France FOB (Paris)	11.0% protein	≈ 290	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

Russian export activity is a central driver: consultancy Sovecon has raised its March wheat export forecast to 4.2 million tonnes, up from 3.8 million tonnes a week earlier. That would be well above February 2026 shipments of 2.9 million tonnes and March 2025 exports of 1.9 million tonnes, highlighting Russia’s current competitiveness and strong demand. FOB prices at Russian ports are holding at last week’s levels thanks to this steady buying interest.

In the EU, MARS’ first yield outlook pegs soft wheat yields at 5.98 t/ha, about 5% below last year but still 2% above the five‑year average. For Germany, yields are projected at 7.64 t/ha, also slightly below last year yet marginally above average. This points to a crop that is more “normal” than tight, limiting bullish supply shocks for now while leaving some weather‑related risk on the table for later in the season.

On the demand side, US wheat export inspections in the week to 19 March reached 458,411 tonnes, slightly exceeding expectations of 250,000–450,000 tonnes. Shipments were 33% above the previous week but 5.5% below the same week a year earlier. Cumulative exports since 1 June for marketing year 2025/26 total 19.93 million tonnes, running 18% ahead of last year and signaling that global buyers remain active despite recent price weakness.

📊 Fundamentals & Macro Drivers

The immediate pressure on wheat prices stems from macro factors. De‑escalation in the Persian Gulf conflict after a US ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz was extended by five days has driven a 10% fall in crude oil prices. This has spilled over into the broader commodity complex, including grains. Simultaneously, the US dollar has weakened and the euro has climbed to a two‑week high, putting additional strain on euro‑denominated wheat by eroding export competitiveness.

Despite this macro‑driven softness, fundamental signals are mixed rather than outright bearish. Strong Russian exports at unchanged FOB levels confirm robust buying interest into the Black Sea. US export inspections running well ahead of last year suggest that, at current price levels, wheat is finding demand. In Europe, the MARS yield outlook points to slightly tighter supply compared with last season but not enough on its own to offset the current macro headwinds.

🌦 Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather remains a secondary but important watchpoint. Early in the European growing season, conditions are broadly adequate, which is reflected in MARS projecting yields still above the five‑year average despite a small year‑on‑year decline. Any shift toward prolonged dryness or late frost in key producers such as France and Germany could quickly inject risk premiums into MATIF prices.

In the Black Sea region, current forecasts do not signal immediate large‑scale stress, which supports the strong Russian export pace. In North America, wheat markets are monitoring moisture for winter wheat in the Plains and early spring conditions in the northern states. For now, no acute weather shock is dominating price action; macro and currency moves remain more influential in the very short term.

📆 Trading Outlook

• For importers: The macro‑induced pullback offers an opportunity to extend coverage for Q2–Q3 2026, especially from Black Sea origins where FOB offers remain firm but competitive. Consider layering in purchases on further dips rather than waiting for a weather‑driven rally.
• For European producers: With MATIF May 2026 around EUR 203/t and forward contracts into 2027 above EUR 220/t, current levels justify incremental hedging of expected production, particularly in Germany and France where yields are forecast only slightly below last year.
• For traders/speculators: Near‑term sentiment is bearish due to macro factors and stronger euro, but firm Russian and US exports plus slightly lower EU yields argue against aggressive short positioning. Favoured strategies are modest tactical shorts in nearby CBOT against optional long exposure further out, or spread trades between Black Sea and EU origins.

📍 3‑Day Price Indication

• MATIF (Paris): Sideways to slightly lower, with May 2026 expected to trade in a EUR 198–206/t range as long as crude oil and the euro remain key drivers.
• CBOT (Chicago): Mild downside bias after the latest sell‑off, with May 2026 likely fluctuating around EUR 190–200/t equivalent, tracking broader US commodity sentiment.
• ICE Feed Wheat (London): Mostly stable, with limited moves expected as UK values follow continental and global benchmarks but domestic fundamentals stay balanced.