South African macadamia prices are diverging: whole-kernel values are firming while halves and pieces are under pressure, as easing tariffs and broader export diversification gradually rebalance demand.
The 2026 South African macadamia campaign starts against a backdrop of rising global supply, but also improving market access and renewed buying interest from key destinations. Stronger prices for whole kernels, contrasted with softer returns for halves and pieces, are sharpening grower focus on quality and cracking efficiency. At the same time, reduced tariffs in the U.S. and expected changes in China, together with expanded sales in Europe and emerging Asian markets, are reshaping trade flows. Weather in key growing regions is currently warm and humid with scattered thunderstorms, supportive for early-season orchard conditions.
📈 Prices & Product Mix
Price dynamics in South Africa underscore a clear premium for quality and whole-kernel recovery. Average prices for whole kernels have risen by about 4.4%, from roughly EUR 12.45/kg to around EUR 13.00/kg (converted from US$13.50 to US$14.10). In contrast, prices for halves and pieces have fallen by about 8.7%, from approximately EUR 9.15/kg to about EUR 8.35/kg (US$9.90 to US$9.04), reflecting higher volumes and lingering carry-over stock.
This widening spread reinforces the long-standing premium for whole kernels, but the current environment makes it more decisive for grower margins. Processors with the capability to maximise whole-kernel recovery are best placed to capture higher returns, while producers reliant on lower-grade material face margin compression. The result is a stronger incentive to invest in better handling, processing technology, and orchard practices that protect kernel integrity.
🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows
South Africa remains the world’s largest macadamia producer, with harvest starting in early March and extending into early spring, ensuring significant exportable supply through the year. New orchards coming into bearing are lifting volumes, but the impact on prices is being moderated by improved market access and an increasingly diversified customer base across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North America.
In the U.S., demand is recovering after earlier tariff disruptions that temporarily stalled momentum. With the relevant tariff now reduced to zero for this year, buyer confidence has improved and enquiries are increasing, helping to absorb kernel supply and support pricing, particularly for higher grades. Market participants expect that, as confidence in stable policy and supply builds, volumes and prices could see further upside over the medium term.
Outside the U.S., exporters have successfully opened and deepened channels in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Japan, while expanding within Europe beyond traditional hubs like Spain, Germany and the Netherlands into markets such as Poland and Lithuania. These diversified outlets have cushioned the sector during the U.S. slowdown and now provide a broader base of demand as tariffs ease. China is also set to play a growing role, with both in-shell and kernel sales expected to rise following anticipated tariff changes, though industry leaders emphasize the need to avoid over-reliance on a single large buyer.
📊 Fundamentals & Weather
Structurally, the market is characterised by expanding global production and a shift towards quality differentiation. In South Africa, new orchards and improved agronomic practices are increasing potential output, while tighter processing margins push growers and processors to focus on whole-kernel recovery as the primary lever for profitability. Higher stocks of lower-grade material explain the current weakness in halves and pieces, while whole kernels benefit from more balanced supply-demand conditions.
In the main macadamia regions of Mpumalanga and neighbouring areas (around Nelspruit), the short-term weather outlook for March 25–27, 2026 points to warm, humid conditions with clouds, sunshine and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Daily highs in the upper-20s to low-30s °C and warm nights in the low-20s °C are broadly supportive for tree physiology and early fruit development, with no immediate weather threat to the crop. This backdrop suggests that near-term supply expectations remain stable.
📆 Market Outlook & Strategy
Looking ahead, the combination of rising South African volumes, easing tariffs in the U.S. and (expected) in China, and diversified export channels sets the stage for gradually firmer conditions in higher-grade kernels. However, the segment for halves and pieces is likely to remain competitive and inventory-heavy until carry-over stocks are worked down and demand adjusts. Long-term, if confidence in policy stability and supply reliability holds, the sector could benefit from renewed investment in downstream product development and marketing in both mature and emerging markets.
💡 Trading & Procurement Recommendations
- Growers & processors: Prioritise investments in cracking and handling technology to maximise whole-kernel recovery, as the widening premium is now a key determinant of farm-gate returns.
- Exporters: Use the current zero-tariff window in the U.S. to lock in contracts for whole kernels, while maintaining diversified sales into Asia, Europe and the Middle East to manage geopolitical and policy risks.
- Buyers & importers: Consider forward coverage for whole kernels given firmer pricing and improving demand, while negotiating more aggressively on halves and pieces where oversupply and carry-over stocks provide leverage.
- Risk management: Monitor policy developments in China and any extension or adjustment of U.S. tariff relief, as changes here could quickly alter price trajectories and regional trade flows.
📍 3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
Indicative short-term outlook for South African export parity, converted to EUR and expressed directionally:
| Product | Current Level (Approx.) | 3-Day Bias | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole kernel, export grade | ≈ EUR 13.0/kg | Sideways to slightly firmer | Steady demand from diversified markets; support from zero U.S. tariffs. |
| Halves & pieces | ≈ EUR 8.3–8.5/kg | Sideways to slightly softer | High volumes and carry-over stocks keep buyers in a strong position. |
| In-shell (China-focused) | Market-dependent | Sideways | Awaiting clearer tariff signals and confirmed buying programs from China. |
Over the next three days, with stable weather and no major policy changes expected, macadamia prices in South Africa are likely to remain broadly stable, with only modest firming potential in whole kernels and continued pressure on lower-grade material.
