Chinese soybean FOB prices in Beijing are edging higher, supported by firm domestic demand and reduced U.S. inflows, while abundant and competitively priced Brazilian supplies cap the upside.
Chinese buyers face a tug-of-war between slightly firmer local prices and cheaper South American offers. Domestic FOB values for Beijing-origin soybeans have risen modestly week-on-week, reflecting steady crush demand and lingering concerns about logistics and currency volatility. At the same time, Brazil is moving a record 2025/26 crop to export, keeping global benchmarks soft and limiting how far Chinese cash prices can rise. With China’s imports from the U.S. still subdued so far in 2026, regional differentials versus U.S. Gulf soybeans remain wide. Short term, the market in China looks mildly bullish on basis, but flat-price rallies are likely to be checked by aggressive Brazilian selling.
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📈 Prices & Spreads
All prices approximate, converted to EUR using prevailing FX rates; movements refer to the latest weekly change.
| Origin | Type | Location / Term | Latest price (EUR/kg) | WoW change (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yellow, organic | Beijing FOB | ≈0.73 | +0.01 |
| China | Yellow, non-organic | Beijing FOB | ≈0.65 | +0.02 |
| U.S. | No. 2 | FOB (benchmark) | ≈0.55 | +0.02 (since mid-March) |
| India | Sortex clean | FOB | ≈0.92 | +0.02 (since mid-March) |
| Ukraine | Std. | Odesa FOB | ≈0.33 | +0.01 |
Chinese FOB levels have firmed modestly, tracking steady crush margins and local demand, while remaining at a premium to U.S. and Ukrainian origins. Brazil’s record 2025/26 crop and aggressive export program continue to weigh on global benchmarks, indirectly restraining Chinese flat prices despite the domestic uptick.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
Global supply: Brazil dominates, U.S. exports to China lag
Brazil is on track for another record soybean harvest in 2025/26, with recent field surveys and official projections pointing to output upwards of ~183 million tonnes and strong yields despite patchy weather. Harvest progress is already beyond the halfway mark, ensuring heavy near-term export availability.
By contrast, U.S. soybean export sales are running well behind last season, with USDA data showing total commitments for 2025/26 roughly 20% lower year-on-year and China’s share sharply reduced. Although China returned to U.S. origin after a late-2025 trade thaw, shipments in early 2026 remain weak, and recent commentary highlights a slump in China’s Jan–Feb U.S. arrivals versus 2025, as Brazilian cargoes dominate.
China: strong imports overall, but origin mix shifts
China’s overall soybean import volumes remain high, driven by resilient feed demand and continued growth in poultry and hog sectors. However, the origin mix has shifted decisively toward South America, particularly Brazil, which captured the bulk of China’s 2025 imports and continues to ship heavily in early 2026. This reduces the need to bid aggressively for U.S. supplies and keeps international benchmarks under pressure.
Within China, crush margins have been volatile. Earlier in March, board crush margins for nearby Brazilian cargoes turned negative on some days, as weaker soybean meal and oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange offset lower import costs, tempering crushers’ willingness to chase higher flat prices. That has encouraged more selective buying and limited upside in domestic soybean bids, even as inventories are worked down.
📊 Fundamentals & Weather (China-Focused)
China weather & logistics
With China between main soybean growing seasons, immediate weather risk to domestic production is low. Recent conditions across key northeastern provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning) have been seasonally cool with normal to slightly above-normal precipitation, supportive for upcoming spring fieldwork rather than posing a direct threat to existing crops. This background keeps domestic supply expectations stable for the 2026/27 cycle, reducing weather-driven price spikes in the near term.
Logistics around major import hubs and inland routes to crushing centers remain broadly normal, with no major disruptions reported in the last few days. However, congestion at Brazilian interior ports—linked to the record harvest and intense trucking flows—may cause some shipment delays and short-lived tightness at Chinese coastal terminals later in April, which could temporarily firm domestic basis levels.
📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Market bias (next 1–2 weeks)
- Flat price: Slightly bullish in China on domestic basis, but capped by heavy Brazilian exports and soft international benchmarks.
- Spreads: Chinese FOB retains a premium over U.S. Gulf and Black Sea origins; scope for modest narrowing if Brazilian delays ease.
- Volatility: Event-driven, linked to updated Brazilian crop estimates and any fresh U.S.–China trade signals.
Trading outlook (tactically focused)
- Chinese crushers/feed buyers: Consider layering in short-term coverage at current Beijing FOB levels, as domestic prices have risen only modestly while Brazilian supply risks (port congestion, freight) could briefly lift basis in April.
- Importers/merchants into China: Maintain preference for Brazilian origin for nearby shipments given record harvest and competitive export prices, but monitor U.S. offers for potential arbitrage if Gulf basis weakens further.
- Producers in China: Use the current firmness in organic and conventional FOB prices to scale up forward sales, especially for higher-quality lots that continue to capture strong premiums versus imported beans.
📍 3-Day Directional Price Indications (EUR, Direction Only)
Based on current fundamentals, global news and regional dynamics, price indications below are directional for the next three trading days (in EUR terms):
- China, Beijing FOB (yellow, non-organic): Slight upward bias (≈+0.5–1.0% in EUR) as domestic demand stays firm and local basis tightens modestly.
- China, Beijing FOB (yellow, organic): Stable to slightly higher (≈0–+1.0%), supported by limited premium supply and robust food-grade demand.
- International benchmarks (CBOT-linked, U.S. No. 2 FOB equivalent): Mostly sideways to mildly softer (≈0–−0.5%) in EUR, reflecting record Brazilian availability and subdued U.S. export pace to China.
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