Lentil Market Faces Heavy Supply and Cautious Buying as Indian New Crop Arrives

Lentil markets are entering a heavy-supply phase, with Indian prices flat and traders advising against aggressive buying as new-crop arrivals and ample imports cap any upside. Global production prospects, led by Canada, point to a broadly surplus year, keeping international offers competitive for importers.

Indian lentil prices were unchanged for a second day on Wednesday, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode rather than outright weakness. New-crop supplies from Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are starting to build, while ports and state buffer stocks are already comfortable. Demand from eastern India provides some seasonal support, but mills and traders are restricting purchases to immediate needs. For European and global buyers, current Canadian and Australian values remain attractive, though a possible tweak to India’s import duty could slightly re-route trade flows in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Trend

In India, domestic-origin desi lentils are steady around the equivalent of roughly EUR 0.88–0.89 per kg in Delhi, with no change for two consecutive sessions. Imported Canadian lentils in containers are holding near EUR 0.79–0.80 per kg, while Australian containerized product is quoted just below that range, underscoring a narrow discount to domestic material. At key ports, Canadian lentils remain stable near EUR 0.76–0.77 per kg at Kandla and roughly EUR 0.77–0.78 per kg at Hazira, highlighting broadly comfortable import positions. Patna, a core consumption hub in Bihar, mirrors this stability with domestic lentils holding steady.

Indicative global FOB offers also confirm a relatively calm but well-supplied market. Recent quotes converted to EUR show Canadian Eston green lentils around EUR 1.54/kg FOB, Laird green near EUR 1.63/kg, and red football types close to EUR 2.40/kg from Ottawa. Chinese small green lentils out of Beijing are currently about EUR 1.07/kg FOB for conventional and around EUR 1.15/kg for organic product. These levels show only marginal movements in recent weeks, consistent with the broader narrative of abundant supply and cautious demand.

Market / Product	Price (EUR/kg)	Trend (1–2 weeks)
India, Delhi desi lentils (domestic)	≈ 0.88–0.89	Flat
India, Canadian lentils in containers	≈ 0.79–0.80	Flat
India, Australian lentils in containers	≈ 0.78–0.79	Flat
Canada FOB, Eston green	≈ 1.54	Slightly firm
Canada FOB, Laird green	≈ 1.63	Slightly firm
Canada FOB, red football	≈ 2.40	Slightly firm
China FOB, small green (conventional)	≈ 1.07	Sideways
China FOB, small green (organic)	≈ 1.15	Sideways

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

Two main forces are weighing on lentil prices: rapidly building Indian new-crop arrivals and a comfortably supplied global balance sheet. Harvest progress in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh is feeding a steady flow of fresh material into domestic markets, with volumes expected to accelerate further if weather remains cooperative. At the same time, India’s central buffer stock of around 400,000 tonnes provides an additional cushion against any short-term supply risk.

Import flows are also significant. A Canadian vessel with about 22,293 tonnes of lentils and 10,669 tonnes of yellow peas is due at Mundra port on 28 March 2026, adding to inventory at a time when domestic availability is already improving. Dal mills are therefore buying strictly on an as-needed basis, and traders show little appetite to build speculative long positions ahead of the full harvest. Seasonal demand from Bihar, West Bengal, and Assam will lend some support, but the combination of robust domestic supply, healthy port stocks, and buffer holdings is clearly capping any price rally for now.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy Watch

Global production estimates, particularly for Canada—India’s key external supplier—point to another surplus-oriented season. This underpins competitive export offers for Canadian and Australian lentils into Europe and other destinations. For European processors and re-exporters, the current environment is favourable: input prices are stable, forward coverage can be built without chasing the market higher, and origin diversification (Canada, Australia, China) remains available at relatively tight differentials.

On the policy side, India currently applies a 10% import duty on lentils, but trade sources suggest a modest increase is under active consideration. The aim would be to shield domestic farmers from cheap imports just as the new crop reaches markets. Any hike is likely to be incremental rather than drastic, but even a small adjustment could nudge landed prices higher into India, marginally redirecting some Canadian and Australian volumes towards Europe, the Middle East, or Africa. For now, the prospect of higher duties is reinforcing trader caution and discouraging aggressive import booking beyond short-term needs.

🌦 Weather Outlook (Key Indian Regions)

With the Indian lentil harvest underway in central and northern states, the market focus is primarily on avoiding late-season weather shocks. The current baseline assumption among traders is for largely favourable conditions, enabling a smooth continuation of arrivals. If that view holds, supply pressure on prices will intensify over the coming weeks as more crop hits wholesale markets.

Only a meaningful weather disruption—such as unseasonal heavy rains or localized hail events—would significantly alter the near-term balance by slowing arrivals or affecting quality. As of now, no such widespread threat is reflected in trading behaviour, which remains more concerned about managing oversupply than about production loss.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• For Indian traders and mills: Maintain a hand-to-mouth buying strategy while new-crop arrivals build and buffer plus port stocks remain heavy. Avoid speculative stocking at current levels given the clear downside risk if supplies exceed expectations.
• For European importers: Use the present period of stable Canadian and Australian offers to secure partial forward coverage, especially for Q2–Q3 needs. Focus on flexible shipment windows and diversified origin mix to benefit if Indian policy changes redirect more export availability towards Europe.
• For food manufacturers and retailers: Lock in a share of requirements at today’s prices, which are underpinned by surplus fundamentals. However, retain some open volume to benefit from any further softening should Indian arrivals accelerate faster than anticipated.
• Risk watch: Monitor Indian government announcements on lentil import duties closely. Even a modest upward adjustment could tighten some nearby export availability and firm replacement costs, especially for lower-grade and price-sensitive segments.

📉 3-Day Price Direction (Key Regions)

• India (domestic & ports): Sideways to slightly weaker over the next three days, as new-crop arrivals and incoming Canadian vessel supplies weigh on sentiment but are partially offset by seasonal demand.
• Canada FOB (green & red lentils): Broadly stable to mildly firmer, supported by steady export interest and competitive positioning versus other pulses, but capped by expectations of ample global supply.
• China FOB (small green lentils): Mostly sideways, tracking general pulse market stability with limited near-term catalysts for sharp moves.