Chinese dried apple cube prices in the EU/Netherlands are flat around EUR 4.25–4.35/kg FCA Dordrecht, with no change over the past month despite a smaller Chinese fresh apple crop. Tight but orderly raw-material supply in China and steady EU demand are keeping the market in a narrow range, with only modest upside risk in the near term.
Dried apple processors in China enter late March with a structurally smaller fresh apple crop for 2025/26 but no acute weather shock in key regions this week. Export availability is somewhat tighter versus previous years, yet EU buyers report comfortable nearby coverage and limited spot urgency. Freight and logistics are currently not the main driver; instead, the balance between reduced Chinese supply and stable snack and bakery demand in Europe is anchoring prices. Unless weather or currency moves turn more hostile, the market is likely to remain directionless into early April.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apple dried
Cubes 10-12 mm
FCA 4.30 €/kg
(from NL)
Apple dried
Cubes 5-7 mm
FCA 4.35 €/kg
(from NL)
Apple dried
Cubes 8-10 mm
FCA 4.25 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices & Spreads
Current offers for Chinese-origin dried apple cubes ex Dordrecht (FCA, NL) cluster narrowly between about EUR 4.25 and 4.35/kg depending on cut size, and have been unchanged on weekly postings since late February. This indicates a stable equilibrium where neither processors nor EU buyers see enough pressure to move levels meaningfully higher or lower.
The lack of price reaction comes despite a confirmed reduction in China’s fresh apple production for 2025/26, which USDA pegs around 47 million tons, down from over 49 million the year before, reflecting reduced acreage and earlier weather issues in major producing provinces. For now, existing dried stocks and forward contracts appear sufficient to cushion this structural decline.
| Product | Origin | Location (EU) | Delivery terms | Latest price (EUR/kg) | 1-week move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dried apple cubes 5–7 mm | China | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 4.35 | Stable |
| Dried apple cubes 8–10 mm | China | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 4.25 | Stable |
| Dried apple cubes 10–12 mm | China | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 4.30 | Stable |
🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather (China-focused)
USDA’s latest China deciduous fruit report confirms that commercial fresh apple production is projected lower for 2025/26, mainly on reduced acreage and prior-season weather impacts in top-producing provinces such as Shaanxi and Shandong. This underpins a generally tighter raw-material environment for both juice concentrate and dried apple processors compared with recent peak years.
However, immediate field conditions are benign. Forecasts for Yantai in Shandong show mild, mostly cloudy weather with highs around 14–18°C and no frost risk from 27–29 March, while Xi’an in Shaanxi is expected to be warm and mostly sunny or partly cloudy with highs near 21–23°C over the same period. With orchards still early in the season, this stable pattern neither tightens nor loosens supply in the very short term.
On the demand side, EU snack, bakery and cereal makers continue to use Chinese dried apple as a cost-effective inclusion, but there is little sign of a demand surge or substitution panic at current price levels. Global apple markets are also digesting lower overall production, particularly in China and Turkey, which limits downside for processing apples and, by extension, dried apple input costs.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Risks
Fundamentally, the dried apple market from China into Europe is balanced: a smaller Chinese crop and gradually shrinking planted area provide medium-term support, but good existing inventories and cautious buyer behavior cap near-term rallies. The narrow price band across cube sizes suggests limited differentiation in raw material costs and a relatively competitive processing environment.
Key price risks in the weeks ahead include any late frost event in April–May in northern China’s apple belt, which could tighten expectations for the 2026 harvest and prompt processors to reprice forward offers. Currency movements (EUR vs CNY) and any change in EU consumer spending on processed fruit snacks are secondary, but still relevant, levers for price direction.
📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading View
With weather stable in Shandong and Shaanxi this weekend and no fresh supply shock, Chinese dried apple prices into NL are likely to remain rangebound around EUR 4.25–4.35/kg through the next few days. The psychological floor is underpinned by smaller Chinese production and firm processing costs, while sluggish demand prevents a breakout higher.
- EU buyers: Consider covering April–May needs at current flat prices, but avoid over-committing far forward unless adverse Chinese weather emerges.
- Chinese processors/exporters: Maintain offers but be prepared for more aggressive negotiation on larger-volume tenders, as EU demand is steady yet not urgent.
- Traders: Short-term strategies should focus on carry and logistics optimization rather than directional bets, given the very tight price range.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)
- NL (Dordrecht, FCA) – all cube sizes: around EUR 4.25–4.35/kg; expected to stay stable over the next 3 days, with only a slight upward bias if fresh bullish news from China emerges.
