Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Turkish Supply Tightens and China, Chile Stay Stable

Raisin prices across key export origins are broadly steady at elevated levels, with Turkish sultanas still setting the top of the range and Afghanistan and China anchoring the low-to-mid segment. No major short‑term supply shock is visible, but limited Turkish availability and firm demand for affordable origins keep the market tight rather than weak.

The current market is defined by stable offer levels and a delicate balance between constrained premium supply from Turkey and good availability from lower‑priced origins such as Afghanistan, China and Chile. Recent industry updates still point to structurally reduced Turkish inventories after last year’s frost, while Chinese and Chilean dried grape sectors report generally favorable weather and good quality. This combination supports a sideways to slightly firm price bias into early April, especially for higher‑spec sultanas and for nearby positions into Northwest Europe.

📈 Prices & Differentials

All prices below are approximate market indications in EUR/tonne for late March 2026, converted from prevailing USD export quotes where needed.

Origin / Type	Location & Terms	Latest Price (EUR/t)	1-week Trend
Afghanistan feed, brown	NL FCA	≈1,930	Stable w/w
Chile flame jumbo	NL FCA	≈2,480	Stable w/w
China sultanas no.9 AA	NL FCA	≈2,180–2,210	Flat to slightly softer
Turkey sultanas no.9 RTU	NL FCA	≈2,870	Stable w/w
Turkey sultanas type 9 A	TR FOB Malatya	≈2,350	Stable after prior rise

Turkish material continues to trade at a premium of roughly EUR 500–700/t over Afghan feed‑type raisins and around EUR 600–700/t over Indian brown grades, reflecting tighter raw material and strong brand perception in Europe.
Industry commentary for Q1 2026 still flags limited Turkish sultana stocks and firm price ideas, with global sultana and raisin prices described as stable at a high plateau rather than easing.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers (AF, CL, CN, TR)

Afghanistan (AF)

• New processing capacity in Kabul province and a broader policy focus on dried fruit exports have expanded Afghanistan’s ability to ship standardized raisin product, even if logistical and documentation hurdles remain.
• Recent trade data highlight a sharp increase in trade flows with Iran in early 2026, which likely supports regional demand for Afghan dried fruit, including lower‑grade raisins used in blending and re‑export.
• With no fresh crop or weather shock at this time of year, Afghan offers into Europe act as a competitively priced floor under the market rather than a source of downward pressure.

Chile (CL)

• Industry harvest reports for the 2025 dried grape campaign in Chile highlighted excellent quality and favorable weather, with good drying conditions and limited disease pressure.
• Chile remains a key supplier of flame and other large‑berry raisins to Europe; stable, good‑quality supply is consistent with the current flat price behavior around EUR 2,480/t FCA NL.
• No recent news in the last few days indicates disruption to the 2026 harvest so far; seasonal weather in central Chile is currently within normal ranges for late‑summer grape picking, pointing to a neutral short‑term impact on prices.

China (CN)

• China’s broader agricultural sector delivered record grain output in 2025 despite episodes of drought and heat, underlining improved resilience and irrigation in key producing regions such as Xinjiang, the main origin for Chinese raisins.
• No fresh reports over the last three days point to weather‑related damage in Xinjiang vineyards; current conditions are seasonally cool and dry, as vines are still in dormancy or early bud‑swell.
• Combined with stable logistics, this supports steady sultana export offers into Europe, explaining the very narrow week‑on‑week moves in Hamburg FCA quotes.

Turkey (TR)

• Recent industry commodity briefings for spring 2026 still stress that earlier spring frosts in Malatya and surrounding areas significantly reduced the 2025 raw material base, leaving limited carry‑in stocks and keeping prices elevated.
• Export volumes from Turkey were reported down by roughly one‑third year‑on‑year for the 2025 season, implying that current stable prices are more a function of constrained supply than of weak demand.
• Weather over the past week in western and central Turkey has been relatively mild with no major frost or storm episode reported, which is positive for the upcoming 2026 grape set but does not change the short‑term tightness.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Snapshot

• Stocks: Turkish sultana stocks remain thin after last year’s frost‑affected crop, providing fundamental support to premium grades.
• Competition: India and China are gaining share in value‑sensitive markets because of more attractive pricing, but they have not yet displaced Turkey in higher‑end European bakery and retail segments.
• Weather (next 7–10 days): Forecasts for Malatya (TR), Xinjiang (CN) and central Chile show mostly seasonal temperatures without extreme frost or heavy rain episodes, implying neutral to slightly supportive conditions for vines and for late‑season drying where applicable.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Price Outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Base case is a sideways market: tight Turkish supply and steady demand for affordable origins offset the absence of fresh weather shocks.
• Upside risk comes mainly from any late frost headlines in Turkey or logistics disruptions in the Black Sea and East Med region.
• Downside risk is limited in the near term and would require a clear demand slowdown in Europe or aggressive discounting from China and India.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers in Europe (food industry, packers): Consider covering Q2–Q3 needs for Turkish sultanas now, as the premium segment is underpinned by low stocks and unlikely to soften materially without a strong new‑crop outlook.
• Value‑focused buyers: Look at Afghan and Chinese material to blend down average cost; spreads of EUR 500–700/t versus Turkish origin remain attractive while quality is acceptable for many industrial uses.
• Producers/exporters (AF, CN, CL): With prices stable, prioritize reliable contract execution and logistics rather than chasing marginal price increases; maintaining market share into Europe is strategically more important than a small spot premium.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• AF (Afghanistan to EU, feed/bulk grades): EUR ≈1,900–2,000/t FCA equivalent, expected stable over the next three days.
• CL (Chile flame to EU): EUR ≈2,450–2,550/t FCA equivalent, expected stable with a slight firm bias on high quality lots.
• CN (Xinjiang sultanas to EU): EUR ≈2,150–2,250/t FCA equivalent, expected stable to marginally softer as competition with Indian and Afghan offers persists.
• TR (Malatya sultanas to EU): EUR ≈2,800–2,900/t FCA equivalent, expected firm/stable given tight stocks and steady demand.