Chinese walnut kernel prices are edging higher across most grades, while Indian and US organic halves remain firm at elevated levels. Tightening premium supply and cautious downstream demand keep the global walnut market balanced but slightly supportive for prices.
A modest uptrend is emerging in Chinese FOB Dalian offers for light quarters and pieces, supported by steady export demand and limited downside in competing origins. California’s shorter 2024 crop and robust 2024/25 export pace have already reduced uncommitted stocks, while China remains the dominant global producer with solid output, keeping overall supply adequate but less burdensome than in previous years. India’s domestic kernel market stays expensive, underpinned by strong branded retail demand and expectations of more competition from imported US product.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Walnut kernels
light quarter
FOB 3.35 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light amber pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.30 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.85 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices & Spreads
All prices below are indicative FOB, converted to EUR at ~1 USD = 0.92 EUR.
| Origin | Product | Location | Current Price (EUR/kg FOB) |
1-week Change (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (CN) | Walnut kernels, light quarter | Dalian | ≈ 3.08 | +0.05 |
| China (CN) | Walnut kernels, light pieces 8–12 mm | Dalian | ≈ 2.62 | +0.05 |
| China (CN) | Walnut kernels, light amber pieces 8–12 mm | Dalian | ≈ 2.11 | +0.05 |
| China (CN) | Walnut kernels, light broken 4–8 mm | Dalian | ≈ 2.71 | +0.05 |
| US (US) | Walnut kernels, organic light halves | ex London | ≈ 4.19 | +0.05 |
| India (IN) | Walnut kernels, organic light halves | New Delhi | ≈ 4.93 | +0.05 |
Chinese kernel prices have broken out of their recent flat pattern with a narrow 0.05 EUR/kg move across key grades, indicating mildly improving buying interest from export channels. Premium organic halves from India and the US continue to command a sizable spread of around 0.70–2.80 EUR/kg over Chinese conventional pieces, reflecting both quality perception and tighter availability of organic supply.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
China (CN): China remains the world’s largest walnut producer, accounting for more than half of global output in recent seasons. After strong 2024/25 harvest volumes and high early-season exports, domestic spot availability is comfortable but not burdensome, particularly for light-colour kernels. Export forecasts for China & Hong Kong/Vietnam show stable to slightly rising shipments into 2026, indicating resilient demand from Asia and Europe.
United States (US): California’s 2024 walnut crop is estimated sharply lower year-on-year due to reduced bearing area and weather stress, ending around 670,000 tons. Shipment statistics for 2024/25 show strong export flows and limited uncommitted carry-out, especially for kernel product, tightening premium supply and underpinning prices for US-origin light halves and organic kernels.
India (IN): India’s domestic walnut production remains relatively small compared with China and the US, with around 33,000 tons crop and growing consumption. Wholesale and retail demand for high-quality Kashmiri and imported kernels is reported as steady, while a prospective trade deal with the US is raising expectations of more competitive imports of California walnuts in coming seasons. This keeps Indian origin prices elevated but may cap further upside if cheaper imported kernels gain market share.
📊 Fundamentals & Weather
Weather – China (CN): Key walnut regions in Northwest China (e.g., Xinjiang, Gansu) are currently transitioning from winter to spring with generally seasonable conditions and no major frost or drought events reported in late March. No significant weather shocks have been noted in the past few days that would materially alter 2026 yield expectations, leaving supply risks near average for now.
Weather – United States (US): Recent California reports highlight that heavy precipitation in late 2024 replenished water reserves, followed by sufficient winter chilling hours, improving the medium-term production outlook despite last season’s smaller crop. Near-term weather in California’s Central Valley has been relatively benign, reducing immediate frost concerns but leaving the industry focused on orchard economics after several seasons of low prices and acreage adjustments.
Weather – India (IN): In India’s primary walnut-growing areas such as Jammu & Kashmir, the late-winter to early-spring period has not seen any widely reported extreme weather episodes in the past few days. Local trading activity in Kashmiri kernels is described as active but small-scale, with prices more driven by domestic retail demand and import expectations than by short-term weather shifts.
📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
The combination of modest Chinese price gains, constrained US premium supply and structurally tight Indian availability points to a mildly bullish near-term tone for walnut kernels. However, ample Chinese stocks and the approach of the Northern Hemisphere growing season limit the scope for a sharp rally without a new weather or policy shock.
- Buyers (roasters, packers): Consider covering a portion of Q2–Q3 needs now, especially for Chinese light quarters and pieces, to lock in still-attractive differentials versus Indian and US origins. Stagger purchases to retain flexibility in case of any demand slowdown.
- Sellers (Chinese exporters, traders): Use the recent uptick in FOB Dalian to conclude nearby shipments, but avoid over-committing forward until clearer visibility on 2026 crop conditions emerges. Premiums for high lightness grades and consistent sizing should be defended.
- Importers in India & EU: Monitor potential policy and tariff developments around US–India trade that could alter landed cost relationships. A narrowing gap between California and Chinese offers could encourage a shift toward more US origin in branded mixes.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)
- China (CN, FOB Dalian kernels): Slightly firmer bias over the next 3 days, with incremental gains of around 0.02–0.03 EUR/kg possible on active export enquiry and limited seller pressure.
- India (IN, FOB New Delhi kernels): Mostly stable at elevated levels; small upward adjustments cannot be ruled out if local demand stays solid, but key moves will likely await clearer news on import competition.
- United States (US, ex-Europe organic halves): Steady to slightly firmer, supported by tight organic supply and lingering concerns about long-term acreage and profitability in California walnut orchards.
