Indian Peanut Sowing Surge in Gujarat Sets Cautiously Bearish Price Tone

Peanut sowing in Gujarat has accelerated sharply this rabi season, lifting the risk of oversupply from June onward and tilting the medium-term price outlook for Indian peanuts cautiously bearish. Export demand from Europe and Southeast Asia should help absorb quality lots, but domestic spot prices are likely to face harvest pressure.

Peanut markets enter late March with Gujarat firmly in expansion mode. Sown area reached 45,000 ha by 23 March 2026, already 45.61% above the same time last year and close to 80% of the recent three-year average, underpinned by favourable weather and strong farmer margins in recent seasons. With additional sowing likely in coming weeks and kharif supplies still comfortable, buyers—especially in Europe’s confectionery and edible oil segments—should prepare for a more supply-heavy Indian balance sheet into the June–September window.

📈 Prices & Current Market Tone

Indian peanut export offers in New Delhi and Gujarat are broadly stable to slightly softer month-on-month in EUR terms, reflecting adequate kharif supply and early expectations of a larger rabi crop. Indicative FOB levels for conventional Indian peanuts currently cluster around EUR 0.93–1.18/kg equivalent, with Brazilian raw peanuts commanding a modest premium.

Origin / Type	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–3 Week Change	Update Date
India, bold 40–50	Gujarat (Gondal), FOB	≈ 0.95	▼ about 1% vs mid-March	20 March 2026
India, bold 50–60	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 0.94	▼ about 1% vs mid-March	20 March 2026
India, bold 60–70	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 0.92	▼ about 1% vs mid-March	20 March 2026
India, java 60–70	New Delhi, FOB	≈ 1.09	flat vs mid-March	20 March 2026
India, birdfeed	New Delhi, CFR	≈ 0.96	▼ about 2% vs mid-March	20 March 2026
Brazil, raw	Brasília, FOB	≈ 1.17	▼ about 2% vs mid-March	20 March 2026

Note: All values converted approximately from USD to EUR for consistency.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Gujarat, India’s dominant groundnut state and a key origin for European buyers, has seen rabi peanut sowing surge to 45,000 ha as of 23 March 2026, up from 30,903 ha a year earlier. Current area already represents almost 80% of the three-year average of 56,667 ha, signalling strong sowing momentum and raising the probability of clearly higher output if weather remains cooperative through flowering and harvest.

Northern Gujarat is leading the expansion, with about 19,300 ha planted—driven mainly by Banaskantha (14,600 ha)—while Saurashtra has added 16,500 ha with Bhavnagar as the main contributor. Central and South Gujarat account for a smaller but still notable share. The drivers are improved farmer confidence following recent strong price realisations and seasonally favourable, dry conditions that support timely field work and irrigation scheduling.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Context

The prospective rabi crop will arrive into a domestic market that is already adequately supplied from the 2025–26 kharif groundnut harvest. Early-season agronomic guidance for Gujarat points to below-normal rainfall and persistently dry weather into early March, implying a need for regular irrigation but also reducing disease pressure if water is managed well. This profile currently supports yield potential rather than threatening it.

On the demand side, export interest from Southeast Asia and Europe remains solid for high-quality edible and confectionery grades, while peanut oil demand inside India is steady. However, the magnitude of the acreage increase in Gujarat suggests that even with firm export pull, additional volume from June onward is more likely to cap rallies than to trigger a sustained bull market, unless weather shocks or quality problems emerge later in the season.

📆 Price Outlook & Strategy

The medium-term outlook for Indian peanuts is cautiously bearish, anchored in the rapid expansion of sowing in Gujarat and the prospect of larger rabi production atop comfortable kharif stocks. As harvest nears from June, increasing farmer and trader selling is expected to exert downward pressure on spot and nearby export values, particularly for bulk grades.

• European and Southeast Asian buyers: Consider layering in forward contracts during April–May, before full harvest pressure materialises, to secure volume and quality while still benefiting from a softening market structure.
• Indian shellers and exporters: Hedge downside price risk on existing inventories and be prepared for tighter processing margins as new-crop supply competes with remaining old-crop stocks.
• Producers in Gujarat: Monitor late-season weather and export demand; any negative weather surprise could quickly stabilise or reverse the bearish tone, especially for prime confectionery lots.

📉 3‑Day Directional View (EUR Basis)

• India, Gujarat FOB (bold grades): Slightly softer to stable over the next three days as sowing data remains heavy and old-crop supply is still ample.
• India, New Delhi FOB (java grades): Mostly stable; quality differentials likely to hold premiums but broader downside bias from Indian supply story persists.
• Brazil, FOB raw: Stable to marginally softer, tracking broader oilseed sentiment and competition from increasingly competitive Indian offers.