Sunflower Market Squeezed by Rising Seed Costs and Softer Oil Prices

Sunflower seed prices in Ukraine have moved higher while sunflower oil FOB EU has corrected down, sharply compressing crush margins and forcing plants to curb raw seed purchases and exports.

The market is caught between firm farmer expectations and a weakening downstream oil market. Ukrainian purchase levels around the equivalent of EUR 648–653/ton CPT for seed contrast with sunflower oil FOB EU falling by about EUR 37/ton into roughly EUR 1,343–1,370/ton, limiting processing incentives. As a result, factories reduce intake and sunflower seed exports have effectively come to a standstill, tightening nearby physical liquidity but also capping further upside in farm-gate values.

📈 Prices & Margins

Domestic sunflower seed purchase prices in Ukraine have risen to about USD 700–705 CPT (≈ EUR 648–653/ton at 1.08 EUR/USD), reflecting strong on-farm holding power and earlier competition among crushers for volumes. At the same time, sunflower oil FOB EU has fallen by roughly USD 40 to around USD 1,450–1,480 (≈ EUR 1,343–1,370/ton), eroding crush margins.

This price mismatch has quickly translated into lower processing activity. With oil values not keeping pace with seed costs, plants struggle to cover variable costs, especially logistics and energy, and therefore are less willing to bid aggressively for additional raw material.

📊 Current indicative prices (converted to EUR)

Product	Origin	Location / Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	Change vs prev.	Update date
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Ukraine	Odesa, FOB	0.57	-0.01	2026-03-26
Sunflower seeds, black with stripe	China	Beijing, FOB	1.46	-0.02	2026-03-26
Sunflower kernels, hulled confection	China	Beijing, FOB	1.13	+0.02	2026-03-26

These physical quotes confirm a slight softening in Black Sea FOB seed values from mid-March and some resilience in value-added kernel segments, even as bulk oil prices weaken.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

The increase in Ukrainian seed purchase prices has not been backed by a corresponding improvement in sunflower oil realization, so crush demand for seed has cooled. Factories are buying only when necessary, prioritizing execution of existing oil contracts rather than building stocks.

A notable development is that sunflower seed exports from Ukraine have effectively stopped. This indicates that current price ideas for farmers and local crushers are misaligned with international buyers’ willingness to pay, particularly when cheaper origins or substitute oils are available.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Crush margins under pressure: Higher seed costs against lower oil FOB EU values significantly narrow processing margins, discouraging additional crush runs.
• Shift in product mix: With bulk oil less attractive, there is relatively better price stability in kernels and specialty segments, which still show firm EUR/kg indications in China and the EU.
• Liquidity constraints: The halt in seed exports reduces external price discovery and makes domestic markets more dependent on a limited number of crushers’ bids.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Weather

In the very short term, the key driver remains the margin balance between seeds and oil, rather than weather. Unless sunflower oil FOB EU recovers or seeds correct lower, crush activity is likely to stay subdued and export flows minimal.

Weather for the coming days in major Ukrainian growing areas is seasonally cool but not extreme, with no immediate threat to new-crop planting conditions. As such, weather currently plays a secondary role compared with price and margin dynamics.

🧭 Trading Outlook

• Farmers: Consider scaling in small sales on price strength above current CPT equivalents, as upside looks capped while crush margins remain weak and export demand is absent.
• Crushers: Maintain disciplined purchasing; focus on buying only against forward oil commitments and avoid building expensive seed inventories while FOB oil remains under pressure.
• Buyers of oil and kernels: Use the current margin squeeze to negotiate competitive nearby oil prices, but be aware that sustained margin pressure could later reduce supply and stabilize or lift prices.

📉 3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Ukraine, FOB Odesa – sunflower seeds: Sideways to slightly softer around 0.56–0.58 EUR/kg as crushers resist higher replacement costs.
• EU FOB sunflower oil: Mild downside bias or flat within the recent EUR 1,340–1,370/ton range, reflecting comfortable regional oilseed availability.
• Sunflower kernels (EU & CN FOB): Largely stable, supported by niche demand and value-added positioning versus bulk oils.