Vietnamese dried guava export prices are flat in late March, with no sign yet that the sharp February downturn in overall fruit and vegetable exports is spilling over into guava pricing. For now, FOB Hanoi offers remain stable, but softer demand signals suggest limited upside in the short term.
Exporters of dried guava in northern Vietnam are heading into the end of the dry season with prices effectively unchanged over the past month, despite a steep month‑on‑month drop of around 45% in Vietnam’s aggregate fruit and vegetable export turnover in February. A seasonally warm, dry pattern around Hanoi is supporting harvest and processing logistics, but weaker external demand, especially from China, is creating a more buyer‑friendly environment.
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Guava dried
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FOB 5.25 €/kg
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📈 Prices & Recent Moves
Spot offers for dried white guava FOB Hanoi are assessed around €4.85–€5.05/kg (converted from prevailing USD indications), effectively unchanged over the past four weeks. This reflects a stable cost base and limited short‑term supply shocks.
Given the lack of fresh bullish drivers and the broader softness in Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable export earnings in January–February, sellers are prioritising volume over margin, keeping offer ideas close to recent levels to maintain throughput.
🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Context
Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable export value fell by about 18.8% month‑on‑month in January and another 45.5% in February, signalling a pronounced slowdown in external demand, with China the main drag. While these data are aggregate and not guava‑specific, dried guava is exposed to the same buyer base and freight routes.
On the supply side, guava output in the Red River Delta is seasonally steady at the end of the dry season, with no new reports of weather‑related disruption in northern Vietnam in late March 2026. Earlier flood damage in 2025 affected infrastructure but has not generated fresh constraints this month.
⛅ Weather Snapshot – Northern Vietnam (VN)
Late‑March conditions around Hanoi typically feature warm, relatively dry weather following the winter monsoon, with average temperatures in the low‑ to mid‑20s °C and limited heavy rainfall. Such conditions are generally favourable for fieldwork, harvesting, solar pre‑drying and transport of fresh fruit into processing facilities.
With no major storms or excessive rainfall reported over the last few days and the main wet season still weeks away, operational risks for guava collection and drying in northern Vietnam remain low in the immediate term.
📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals
- Export demand shock: The back‑to‑back declines in fruit and vegetable exports in January and February point to weaker near‑term demand, especially from China, likely pressuring new contracting for dried guava.
- Stable local costs: No fresh reports of input or logistics disruptions in northern Vietnam suggest processing costs for dried guava are broadly unchanged versus earlier in Q1.
- Macro backdrop: Vietnam’s overall export environment in early 2026 is mixed, with some agro‑sectors like coffee expanding while others (wood, fruit and veg) see sharp monthly declines, reinforcing buyer caution and selective purchasing.
| Product | Origin / Term | Current Price (EUR/kg, FOB) | 1‑Month Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dried guava, white | Hanoi, VN / FOB | €4.85–€5.05 | ≈ 0% |
📆 Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Price bias (next 1–2 weeks): Sideways to slightly softer as exporters compete for limited fresh inquiries and fruit/veg export statistics weigh on sentiment.
- For buyers: Consider layering in coverage at the lower end of the current range (€4.85–€4.95/kg FOB) while negotiating for freight and quality flex; near‑term downside appears limited but demand remains fragile.
- For sellers: Prioritise margin defence through specification premiums (colour, moisture, sulphur limits) rather than headline price hikes; be prepared for more aggressive price discussions from Chinese and regional buyers.
📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (VN)
- Hanoi FOB dried guava, white: Expected to remain in a narrow band around €4.85–€5.05/kg over the next three days, with limited volatility given stable weather and no new demand shocks identified.
