Indian Raisin FOB Prices Steady as Summer Sets In, Export Interest Capped

Indian raisin export prices are broadly stable into late March, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves and no clear bullish triggers in the short term. Competitive Turkish and Chinese sultanas, firm freight costs and the onset of hot, dry weather in Maharashtra point to a sideways to slightly soft tone for Indian offers.

Indian raisin markets are transitioning from post‑harvest balance into early‑summer storage mode. With the main grape‑to‑raisin conversion in Maharashtra largely complete and no major new weather or policy shocks reported in the last few days, New Delhi FOB quotes are holding in a tight range. Buyers in Europe continue to receive ample supplies from Turkey and China, limiting upside for Indian origin despite a structurally firm domestic food inflation backdrop. In the very near term, pricing is likely to be driven more by logistics and currency than by fresh fundamental surprises.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and converted to EUR using a working rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR.

Origin / Location	Type / Grade	Terms	Last Update (2026)	Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Trend
India – New Delhi	Raisins, brown, grade AA	FOB	28 Mar	≈ 1.72	Flat vs 19 Mar
India – New Delhi	Raisins, black, grade AA	FOB	28 Mar	≈ 1.66	Flat vs 19 Mar
India – New Delhi	Raisins, golden, grade AA	FOB	28 Mar	≈ 2.13	Flat vs 19 Mar
Turkey – Malatya	Sultanas type 9, grade A	FOB	24 Mar	≈ 2.17	Stable since mid‑Mar
China – via NL	Sultanas no. 9, grade AA	FCA Dordrecht	26 Mar	≈ 2.01	Stable WoW
Turkey – via NL	Sultanas nr. 9, RTU	FCA Dordrecht	26 Mar	≈ 2.64	Stable WoW

Indian brown and black raisins sit at a modest discount to Golden AA, with differentials of roughly EUR 0.40–0.45/kg. Versus Turkish FOB Malatya sultanas, Indian Golden AA remains only slightly cheaper on a pure FOB basis, limiting scope for aggressive price hikes without losing competitiveness.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers (India Focus)

Maharashtra, particularly grape and raisin hubs like Nashik and Sangli (Tasgaon), dominates India’s raisin production. Tasgaon in Sangli district is widely recognized as a major grape and raisin centre, underpinning India’s exportable surplus.

Climatically, Maharashtra has entered its typical hot, dry summer pattern from March, with temperatures rising steadily until June. This supports rapid drying and low immediate disease pressure on remaining fruit, but also increases storage and quality‑maintenance costs (cooling, warehousing). Over the last three days, no credible, date‑stamped reports have flagged acute weather damage or a sudden downgrade to the current raisin crop.

On the demand side, the lack of fresh festival or institutional demand spikes, combined with ongoing availability from Turkey and China into European ports, is contributing to a well‑supplied international market. Recent business media coverage in India has focused more on freight and macro trade disruptions rather than raisin‑specific shortages; export logistics via major Indian ports are functioning but remain cost‑sensitive due to elevated freight premia in some routes.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Crop & Availability: The 2025/26 horticulture outlook for India remains broadly positive, with record or near‑record horticultural output suggested in recent macro reports, supporting adequate grape and raisin availability. There is no near‑term fundamental shortage signal.
• Price Behaviour: Indian FOB raisin prices in New Delhi have been remarkably stable through March, with virtually flat week‑on‑week changes across brown, black and golden qualities. This suggests a temporary equilibrium between producer floor prices and international buying interest.
• Competition: Stable Turkish and Chinese sultana offers into the EU, as reflected in late‑March FCA Dordrecht and Hamburg quotes, cap upside for Indian exporters, particularly in standard baking and confectionery grades.
• Costs & Freight: While not raisin‑specific, ongoing reports of higher freight and war‑risk surcharges on some routes from India weigh on export margins and make buyers more price‑sensitive, encouraging short‑term, hand‑to‑mouth coverage.

📆 Short‑Term Outlook (Next 3 Days, Region: IN)

Weather across Maharashtra’s grape belt typically turns hot and dry from late March, with rising daytime temperatures and minimal rainfall. For the coming three days (29–31 March 2026), this pattern is expected to persist, implying:

• Low immediate weather risk for existing dried stocks.
• Some upward pressure on storage and handling costs, but not enough to shift FOB offers within days.
• No strong incentive for farmers or traders to rush additional selling purely on weather grounds.

3‑Day Price Direction (India, FOB New Delhi, converted to EUR):

• Brown raisins AA: around EUR 1.70–1.75/kg – bias: sideways.
• Black raisins AA: around EUR 1.65–1.70/kg – bias: sideways.
• Golden raisins AA: around EUR 2.10–2.18/kg – bias: sideways to slightly soft if buyers push for minor discounts.

💡 Trading Recommendations

• Exporters (India): Maintain current USD offer levels for the next few days, but be prepared to grant small EUR‑equivalent discounts for prompt, volume business to stay competitive against Turkish and Chinese sultanas.
• Importers / Buyers (EU, MENA): Use the current stable environment to extend coverage modestly into Q2 where quality and specs are met, prioritizing Indian brown/black for value and keeping Turkish sultanas as a benchmark.
• Domestic Traders (India): With no fresh bullish weather or policy news, avoid speculative stock builds at current levels; focus on rotation and quality preservation during the intensifying summer heat.