Wheat Market Steadies on Tender Support and Weather Risks

Euronext and CBOT wheat are stabilising with a slight firmer tone as tender demand, higher crude oil and a weaker euro offset pressure from still-comfortable old-crop stocks. Weather risks in the US southern Plains and a downgraded 2026/27 EU soft wheat crop are shifting focus toward medium‑term supply tightness rather than immediate surplus.

Rising crude oil prices and a softer euro underpinned modest wheat gains at Euronext, while news that Algeria purchased 690,000 t of wheat at around 236 EUR/t C&F added a clear floor to export values. At the same time, the European Commission’s cut to the upcoming EU soft wheat harvest and end‑stocks points to a tighter balance sheet after this season’s record crop and sluggish exports. In the US, ongoing drought in the southern Plains and solid weekly export sales keep CBOT supported ahead of key USDA stocks and acreage data next week.

📈 Prices & Term Structure

Euronext (MATIF) wheat is flat on the day but shows a mild upward slope along the forward curve, reflecting growing concern about future supply:

Contract	Exchange	Last price (EUR/t)
May 2026	Euronext	203.25
Sep 2026	Euronext	212.50
Dec 2026	Euronext	219.50
Mar 2027	Euronext	223.75

CBOT wheat is modestly firmer, with May 2026 around 606 USc/bu (≈204 EUR/t with 1 USD ≈ 0.87 EUR), keeping the transatlantic spread relatively narrow. ICE feed wheat in the UK trades near 174–191 GBP/t (≈203–223 EUR/t), broadly aligned with continental values.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

The European Commission now projects the 2026 EU soft wheat crop at 125.9 mln t, about 8.3 mln t below last year. End‑stocks are seen falling back to 11 mln t in 2026/27 after ballooning to 14.7 mln t this season, when a record 134.2 mln t harvest and disappointing exports swelled inventories.

Export demand is slowly improving. Algeria’s purchase of 690,000 t at about 236 EUR/t C&F confirms that North African buyers are willing to step in on price dips, helping to underpin Euronext quotations. For 2026/27, EU soft wheat exports are forecast at 30 mln t, 2 mln t above the current season, which would help draw down stocks and keep the forward curve supported.

📊 US Fundamentals & USDA Data Risk

Weekly USDA export data for the week to 19 March showed current‑season US wheat net sales of 397,200 t, in the middle of trade expectations (100,000–500,000 t), while new‑crop bookings reached 205,800 t, above the consensus range. This confirms that international demand is gradually shifting toward 2026/27 supplies.

Next Tuesday’s USDA reports are a key short‑term catalyst. Analysts expect 1 March US wheat stocks at about 1.31 bln bu, roughly 365 mln bu below last year, signalling an ongoing tightening in US inventories. Intended all‑wheat plantings are estimated at 44.8 mln acres, slightly below last year’s 45.3 mln acres, which would cap production potential unless yields surprise to the upside.

🌦 Weather & Regional Cash Market

Persistent dryness across the US southern Plains remains a central risk for the winter wheat crop, with meteorologists seeing limited relief until at least early April. This raises concern about yield losses if the pattern persists into stem elongation and heading.

In the Black Sea region, Ukrainian FOB and FCA prices are broadly stable, reflecting intense competition but also cost support from freight and risk premia. Current indicative levels for conventional wheat are roughly 180–190 EUR/t FOB Odesa for 10.5–12.5% protein and around 230–250 EUR/t FCA for inland Ukrainian positions, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 1–2 weeks): Expect range‑bound to slightly firmer prices, with support from Algeria’s tender, higher energy prices and US Plains weather, but capped by still‑heavy EU old‑crop stocks.
• Before USDA reports: Elevated event risk argues for reduced directional exposure; consider option strategies around the 1 March stocks and acreage data.
• Producers (EU & Black Sea): The moderate carry to 2027 argues for gradual, layered forward sales on rallies, especially for high‑protein lots, while retaining some weather and currency upside via options.
• Consumers (millers, feed compounders): Use current flat‑to‑soft spot values to extend coverage into Q3–Q4 2026, but keep flexibility for 2027 given the prospect of tighter EU balances.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Euronext (MATIF) milling wheat: Slightly firmer bias; support near 200 EUR/t May 2026, resistance around 210–212 EUR/t.
• CBOT wheat: Mild upside risk linked to Plains weather and pre‑USDA positioning; watch 600–620 USc/bu as the key band.
• Black Sea export wheat (FOB Odesa): Largely stable in EUR terms, with modest support from global futures and freight, but capped by strong regional competition.