Hazelnuts: Georgian Kernels Ease While Turkey Holds Firm Amid Quiet Demand

Georgian-origin hazelnut kernel prices in Europe are edging lower in late March, reflecting a soft but orderly market, while Turkish FOB values remain broadly steady after earlier gains. Weather in key Georgian hazelnut regions looks benign for early vegetation this week, limiting immediate weather risk.

European buyers see a slightly easier tone in Caucasian hazelnuts as Georgian kernel offers in Poland have slipped by roughly EUR 0.15–0.20/kg over the past two weeks, narrowing but not closing the gap to Turkish material. Broader agricultural markets are firm on grain and oilseed weather risks, but this is not yet translating into a strong hazelnut rally. With bloom already past and no frost events currently on the radar in western Georgia, near‑term supply risk appears limited, and spot demand from confectionery and bakery users remains measured rather than aggressive.

📈 Prices & Differentials

All prices converted to EUR/kg for comparison; Turkish FOB Istanbul values converted from USD using an indicative rate of 1 EUR = 1.08 USD.

Origin	Product	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Change (EUR/kg)
Georgia	Natural kernels 11–13 mm	Warschau, FCA	11.25	-0.15
Georgia	Natural kernels 13–15 mm	Warschau, FCA	11.60	-0.10
Georgia	Kernels 15+ mm	Warschau, FCA	11.80	-0.20
Turkey	Natural kernels 11–13 mm	Istanbul, FOB	≈10.40	-0.10
Turkey	Natural kernels 13–15 mm	Istanbul, FOB	≈10.88	-0.23

Turkish hazelnut exporters report that 2026 shipments have started on a similar footing to the previous season, with strong inquiry but only partial conversion into firm sales, as high domestic inflation continues to lift cost structures and support local prices. This cost push helps explain why Turkish offers remain relatively firm in EUR terms despite some recent softening.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather

Georgia’s hazelnut production is heavily concentrated in western regions, particularly Samegrelo and parts of Adjara and Guria, which account for more than half of national output. Publicly available crop assessments for 2024/25 and 2025/26 still point to moderate growth in Georgian production from a relatively low base, supported by orchard rehabilitation and improved agronomy.

For the next 3 days, weather models for western Georgia’s coastal and lowland zones indicate mild spring conditions, with daytime temperatures generally in the low-to‑mid teens and limited frost risk. Precipitation is expected to be scattered rather than excessive, supportive for soil moisture but unlikely to trigger immediate disease pressure. With the main frost-sensitive phase mostly behind, short-term weather is neutral to slightly supportive for crop development, reducing the urgency for weather‑driven hedging this week.

On the demand side, hazelnuts continue to ride the broader strength in bakery and confectionery categories, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, where processed cereal and snack exports from Turkey are expanding. However, current spot buying is disciplined: industrial users are well covered into Q2 and are using recent stability in nut and dried fruit prices to fine‑tune positions rather than chase the market higher.

📊 Market Context & Fundamentals

Global agricultural markets have turned more weather‑sensitive in late March, with grain and oilseed benchmarks rising on drought and production concerns in key Northern Hemisphere regions. This creates a slightly firmer cost backdrop for all food ingredients, including nuts, but hazelnuts have so far lagged the broader rally as there is no acute supply shock in Turkey or the Caucasus.

Regional competition is increasing: Azerbaijan, for example, reports growing hazelnut export revenues within its non‑oil export basket, highlighting steady structural demand from European and Middle Eastern buyers. Georgia positions itself directly in this corridor, leveraging proximity to EU markets and improving logistics. At current differentials, Georgian kernels in Europe trade at a modest premium to Turkish FOB, reflecting logistics, quality segmentation and currency effects, but the recent EUR‑denominated easing suggests that premium is under mild pressure.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Price bias (next 1–2 weeks): Slightly soft to sideways for Georgian kernels in Europe as long as weather in western Georgia remains benign and demand stays orderly.
• Weather risk: Monitor early‑April forecasts for any late cold snaps in the Black Sea and Caucasus belt; with trees past initial bloom, only a sharp frost would materially alter the 2026 crop outlook.
• Currency & inflation: Persistent Turkish inflation and lira volatility continue to support floor prices in TRY, which may cap downside in EUR‑terms for Turkish origin hazelnuts even if export demand wobbles.

🧭 Practical Recommendations

• European buyers (industry/roasters): Use current slight easing in Georgian FCA offers to extend coverage modestly into Q3 2026, but avoid over‑hedging ahead of clearer flowering and set data in April–May.
• Producers in Georgia: Consider incremental forward sales on any rally sparked by wider ag‑market strength, as present fundamentals do not yet justify a pronounced hazelnut premium.
• Traders: Watch Turkish export selling pace and cross‑currency moves; relative value opportunities may open between Georgian CFA Poland and Turkish FOB Istanbul lots if lira weakness re‑emerges.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

Region / Market	Product	Current Level (EUR/kg)	3‑Day Direction	Comment
Poland (Warschau, FCA)	GE kernels 11–15+ mm	11.25–11.80	➡️ to ⬇️	Soft undertone; limited buying, benign Georgian weather.
Turkey (Istanbul, FOB)	TR natural kernels	≈10.40–10.88	➡️	Cost support from inflation; no fresh supply shock.

Overall, the hazelnut market enters April in a relatively balanced state: watch weather and macro‑grain volatility for any spillover into nut pricing, but near‑term, modest weakness in Georgian kernels seems more likely than a sharp rally.