Tight West African Cashew Crop Meets Fragile Indian Demand

West Africa’s 2026 raw cashew crop is running short just as Vietnam steps up buying, while India’s processing sector faces currency and demand headwinds. This combination points to firmer raw cashew nut prices in the coming weeks and a more fragile outlook for kernel margins.

Global cashew flows are being reshaped by three forces: underperforming West African crops, Vietnam’s aggressive raw nut imports, and pressure on India’s rupee‑exposed processing industry. In Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Benin, farmers are selling quickly, limiting stock build‑up and keeping nearby supply tight, while Guinea Bissau and Guinea Conakry are only just ramping up their 2026 campaigns. At the same time, US import data for January 2026 show weaker kernel demand, and India’s HORECA sector is cutting purchases. Kernel price indications in Europe and Asia remain broadly stable in euro terms, but the balance of risks for the next 1–3 months is skewed to the upside for RCN and selectively firm for higher grades.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Benchmark West African farmgate prices are firming from already elevated levels. In Ivory Coast, the government benchmark is 400 CFA/kg, roughly EUR 0.60/kg at recent FX, while Benin trades around 350–420 CFA/kg. Nigeria’s western belt is higher still, with well‑dried nuts at 1,900–2,000 NGN/kg (about EUR 1.26–1.32/kg), supported by export demand and sharply higher fuel costs.

On the kernel side, offer indications remain stable over March. Vietnam FOB Hanoi quotes sit near EUR 7.75/kg for WW240 and EUR 6.85/kg for WW320, while Indian FOB New Delhi offers cluster around EUR 7.46–7.90/kg for W240 and about EUR 6.95/kg for non‑organic W320. In Europe, FCA Dordrecht prices for conventional WW320 are around EUR 5.00/kg, with broken grades (FS, SWP) between roughly EUR 3.05 and 3.75/kg, reflecting compressed processing margins and still cautious downstream demand.

Product	Origin / Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)
Cashew kernels WW240	Vietnam FOB Hanoi	7.75
Cashew kernels WW320	Vietnam FOB Hanoi	6.85
Cashew kernels W320	India FOB New Delhi	6.95
Cashew kernels WW320	Netherlands FCA Dordrecht	5.00

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

West African supply is the key bull driver. The 2026 raw cashew harvest across the region is below last year in both volume and quality, with farmers largely selling immediately after harvest. Ivory Coast remains the anchor supplier, with reported sales of 630,000–650,000 t and over 550,000 t accumulated by local processors, but yields are lower and upside in on‑farm availability is limited.

Nigeria and Benin add to the tightness. Nigeria’s second crop is uneven and March trading volumes remain thin, yet export‑driven demand and surging fuel and logistics costs are pushing prices higher, particularly in the western producing states. Beninese farmers are also selling rapidly, especially where aggregation networks are weak, keeping spot supply tighter than seasonal norms. Guinea Bissau’s campaign has just opened with a 410 FCFA/kg minimum price and a 250,000–270,000 t production estimate, while Guinea Conakry’s early arrivals show slightly weaker KOR than in 2025 but at higher export price ideas.

📊 Trade Flows & Fundamentals

Vietnam is absorbing a substantial share of the available raw nuts. Between 1 January and 15 March 2026, Vietnam imported about 438,000 t of RCN worth roughly USD 718 million, including over 151,000 t in the first half of March alone. This front‑loaded procurement, much of it out of West Africa, underpins the firm tone in RCN values and leaves less uncommitted origin stock.

On the kernel side, Vietnam’s exports are expanding modestly in volume but at slightly softer unit values. Year‑to‑date 2026 kernel exports reached about 95,400 t (USD 651.8 million), up from 90,100 t a year earlier, while average prices eased from roughly USD 6,899/t to USD 6,832/t. US import data corroborate a more subdued demand environment: January 2026 kernel imports were just over 10,000 t, down 18 percent year‑on‑year and the lowest January since 2016, with Vietnam supplying nearly 90 percent of volumes.

📉 India: Currency & Demand Headwinds

India’s processing sector is squeezed from several directions. The rupee has weakened sharply, touching a record low near 95 per USD before stabilising just below that level in late March, significantly inflating the local cost of imported RCN, which accounts for 55–60 percent of India’s raw material needs. At the same time, higher‑grade kernel exports to the Middle East remain disrupted by conflict, affecting a destination that usually absorbs almost 40 percent of India’s export volume.

Domestic demand is also under pressure. The HORECA segment has cut kernel purchases because of commercial gas shortages, and many buyers are operating hand‑to‑mouth rather than carrying inventory through an uncertain geopolitical backdrop. This combination of cost inflation and softer forward demand is limiting India’s willingness to compete aggressively for West African RCN, effectively ceding more origin supply to Vietnam.

🌦 Weather & Short‑Term Risks

Weather remains an important swing factor in the coming weeks. Early or excessive rains in Ivory Coast could hamper drying and further erode quality in an already underperforming crop, while heavy rainfall episodes in Nigerian growing belts would disrupt collection and road transport, amplifying the impact of high fuel prices. In Guinea Bissau and Guinea Conakry, a normal onset of the rainy season is crucial to preserve quality as marketing accelerates in April–May.

For Indian buyers and processors, the key weather‑linked risk is any further disruption to Middle East demand routes that might re‑route cargoes or delay shipments, compounding logistical and freight cost uncertainty. Overall, the weather and logistics balance of risk points to additional volatility on RCN premiums rather than a sudden softening.

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Strategy

Over the next 30–90 days, RCN prices across West Africa are likely to firm further. Exporter entry into Ivory Coast from early April should raise competition at the farmgate, while limited stock‑holding by farmers, quality downgrades from erratic rains, and Vietnam’s continued import appetite all tighten the nearby balance. By contrast, kernel prices may lag the raw nut rally given soft US demand and constrained Indian buying, leading to ongoing margin pressure for processors.

Over a six‑ to twelve‑month horizon, fundamentals look cautiously constructive but uneven. Strong Vietnamese imports and rising Chinese kernel demand underpin support, yet lower‑quality West African crops, subdued Indian processing and elevated freight costs could cap margin recovery. European buyers should pay close attention to West African shipment flows from mid‑April onward as a clearer picture of effective exportable surplus emerges.

📌 Trading recommendations (1–6 months)

• RCN importers / roasters: Consider covering a higher share of Q2–Q3 needs early, especially for better‑grade West African origins, before exporter competition intensifies in Ivory Coast.
• Kernel buyers in Europe and Asia: Use current relatively stable euro‑denominated kernel offers to secure core volumes, but remain selective on high‑grade premiums until US and Middle East demand signals improve.
• Processors in India and Vietnam: Protect margins by locking in kernel sales against RCN purchases where possible, and avoid speculative long positions in lower‑KOR West African raw material.
• European distributors: Monitor Nigeria and Guinea Bissau quality closely; blend strategies may be needed if KOR remains below last season’s levels.

📍 3‑day regional price indication (directional)

• West Africa RCN (farmgate, EUR/kg): Ivory Coast and Benin stable to slightly firmer; Nigeria western belt biased higher on fuel and export demand.
• FOB kernels Vietnam (EUR/kg): WW240 and WW320 broadly stable; upside risk limited by slow US off‑take.
• FOB kernels India (EUR/kg): Nominally steady, but effective buying interest remains soft; discounts possible on prompt higher grades if Middle East demand does not normalise.
• FCA Europe (EUR/kg): WW320 and broken grades stable; modest upside risk if West African RCN tightness persists into late April.