Raisins: Aegean Flood Risks vs. Stable Export Prices

Exports remain slow and EUR prices steady in the raisins market, even as heavy rains and flooding in Turkey’s Aegean vineyards raise medium‑term supply risks. For now, expectations for a good 2026 harvest persist thanks to seasonally normal temperatures, but disease and pest pressure are a growing concern.

The Aegean region has seen the heaviest rainfall in years over the last three months, culminating in a week of continuous rain that flooded vineyards along the Gediz River and triggered warnings on fungal diseases and thrips in areas such as Salihli and Turgutlu. While damage assessments are ongoing, stable weather temperatures support the view that overall crop prospects remain positive. Export activity is still muted and quoted prices have largely been unchanged in recent weeks, with Turkish and competing origins trading in a narrow EUR range. This keeps the market balanced near term, but leaves little margin for further weather shocks.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Raisin prices in EUR are broadly flat versus mid-March, confirming that physical markets have so far absorbed Aegean weather news without significant repricing. Turkish sultanas type 9 grade A FOB Malatya are indicated around EUR 2.35/kg, while RTU CIF offers hover near EUR 2.40/kg. Chinese type 9 RTU in Hamburg and Dordrecht trades slightly lower, around EUR 2.18–2.21/kg FCA, preserving a modest discount to Turkish product.

Indian raisins remain the cheaper alternative in FOB terms, with brown AA around EUR 1.86/kg, black AA near EUR 1.80/kg and golden AA about EUR 2.31/kg. European feed‑grade raisins in the Netherlands are offered close to EUR 1.93/kg, while premium Chilean flame jumbo sits at approximately EUR 2.48/kg FCA. Overall, the price complex is range‑bound, reflecting slow export demand and the absence of confirmed large‑scale crop losses.

Origin / Type	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–3 Week Change
Turkey sultanas type 9, grade A	Malatya, FOB	2.35	Stable vs. late March
Turkey sultanas type 9, RTU	Malatya, CIF	2.40	Stable
China sultanas type 9 RTU (STD)	Hamburg, FCA	2.21	Flat over March
India golden AA	New Delhi, FOB	2.31	Flat–slightly softer vs. mid-March
India brown AA	New Delhi, FOB	1.86	Flat–slightly softer
Chile flame jumbo	Dordrecht, FCA	2.48	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

The Aegean region, a key source of Turkish sultanas, has endured exceptional rainfall over the last quarter. Continuous precipitation and river flooding in districts such as Turgutlu have submerged some vineyards, while high humidity is increasing the incidence risk of fungal diseases and thrips infestations. Local authorities have urged growers, especially around Salihli, to intensify monitoring and crop protection measures.

Despite these localized threats, overall weather temperatures remain near seasonal norms, supporting expectations for a broadly good harvest this year. On the demand side, exports are described as slow, with buyers in major import regions remaining cautious and largely covered in the short term. This sluggish offtake offsets the weather‑driven production risks, keeping the global supply–demand balance comfortable for now and limiting upward price pressure.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

Fundamentals currently hinge on three factors: the extent of permanent damage from recent flooding, the effectiveness of disease and pest control, and the pace of export demand recovery. Assessments in the Gediz River basin are still ongoing, and only once water fully recedes will producers and traders be able to quantify yield impacts. So far, there is no broad revision to crop expectations, but uncertainty is higher for low‑lying and poorly drained plots.

The short‑term weather forecast for Manisa shows a gradual shift from intermittent rain to drier, sunnier conditions over the next week, with daytime highs around 16–21°C. This pattern should help vineyards to dry and limit further disease spread, provided growers maintain timely fungicide and insecticide programmes. If these more favorable conditions are confirmed through April, the current narrative of a potentially good harvest with localized quality issues is likely to persist, anchoring prices in their present range.

📆 Trading Outlook

• For buyers: Use current price stability to extend coverage modestly into Q3, especially for Turkish and Chinese sultanas, while keeping some flexibility in case weather issues escalate and tighten supply.
• For sellers/originators: Consider locking in forward sales near current EUR levels in high‑risk vineyard zones exposed to flooding, but avoid over‑committing volumes until damage assessments are clearer.
• For industrial users: Evaluate partial origin diversification toward India and China to mitigate any potential Aegean‑related quality or availability disruptions later in the season.

📉 3‑Day Price Indication

• Turkey (Malatya, FOB): Prices for type 8–10 sultanas expected to remain broadly sideways in the next 3 days, with only limited scope for firmer levels as export demand is still slow.
• Northwest Europe (Dordrecht/Hamburg, FCA): Stable EUR price indications for Chinese and Chilean raisins; no immediate weather‑driven premium expected.
• India (New Delhi, FOB): Brown, black and golden raisins likely to trade flat in the very short term, continuing to offer a small discount to Turkish equivalents.